工业硅、多晶硅日评：重心下移-20250507

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with the industrial silicon price operating in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is expected to be weakly sorted in the short - term, and the unilateral strategy can consider shorting on rallies [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 1.08% to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.97% to 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 2.52% to 8,325 yuan/ton. The price of N - type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 38 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract fell by 2.24% to 36,410 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - side Information - On April 30, a new 1,200 - ton/day photovoltaic glass furnace was added in Zhaotong, Yunnan, and the total domestic furnace production capacity increased to 125,650 tons/day. In April 2025, industrial silicon production was 301,000 tons, a 12% month - on - month and 16% year - on - year decrease. From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon decreased by 12.6% year - on - year. The decrease in April was mainly due to the large - scale production cut of a major factory in Xinjiang and a small amount of production cuts by silicon enterprises in Gansu and other places [1]. - In April, the domestic production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 8.04% compared with March, but the decline rate decreased. It is expected that the DMC start - up rate in May will drop to about 55% [1]. Demand - side Information - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see state. Silicon alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategies - For industrial silicon, considering the supply and demand situation, it is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and continue to pay attention to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises. For polysilicon, it is expected to be weakly sorted in the short - term, and continue to pay attention to the futures warehouse receipt registration situation and the actual production situation of silicon material factories. The unilateral strategy can consider shorting on rallies [1].