东吴证券晨会纪要-20250507

Macro Strategy - The focus of monetary policy adjustments, including "reserve requirement ratio cuts" and "interest rate cuts," is to stabilize economic growth and enhance domestic demand, expectations, and confidence [1] - The analysis of Trump's 2.0 policy indicates a combination of continuity from the 1.0 policy and a new political cycle, with tariffs and fiscal policies being the main sources of expectation differences [1] Overseas Market Overview - The overseas market data during the May Day holiday showed resilience in the US economy, with core GDP and non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to July [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain interest rates, with a CPI forecast of 2.4% providing conditions for potential rate cuts [2] Fixed Income Market - In the week of April 28 to May 2, seven green bonds were issued, totaling approximately 8.475 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.725 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary capital bonds issued during the same period totaled 50 billion yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 104.9 billion yuan, down 31.3 billion yuan from the previous week [5] Company Performance Insights - The company "老百姓" reported a revenue of 22.358 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 0.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 519 million yuan, down 44.13% [8] - "同享科技" adjusted its profit forecast due to intense competition, expecting net profits of 33 million yuan, 52 million yuan, and 68 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22% in 2025 [9] - "海南机场" is expected to benefit from the development of Hainan Free Trade Port, with revised net profit forecasts of 680 million yuan and 1.02 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [9] - "益丰药房" achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 6.53%, with a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% [10] - "九安医疗" reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.77%, but a net profit increase of 33.3% to 1.67 billion yuan [15] Industry Trends - The report on "科润智控" indicates a significant increase in transformer demand, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to 84 million yuan, 123 million yuan, and 168 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 97% in 2025 [17] - "海吉亚医疗" is expected to stabilize after a low point in 2024, with revised net profit forecasts of 666 million yuan and 782 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [18] - "中国电建" is projected to have net profits of 12.5 billion yuan and 13.2 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, benefiting from infrastructure investments [20] - "中国中铁" reported a revenue decline in traditional infrastructure but saw growth in overseas orders, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 28 billion yuan for 2025 [22] - "微软" continues to show strong performance in cloud business, with net profit forecasts of 99.1 billion dollars for FY2025 [23]