贵金属日报：维持低多策略-20250507

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a low-buy strategy for precious metals [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market rose strongly on Tuesday, influenced by factors such as strong domestic buying demand after the May Day holiday, concerns about potential US tariffs on imported drugs, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the escalation of the India-Pakistan situation. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield also boosted precious metal valuations, while the slowdown of the US stock market rally reflected a decrease in risk appetite. The market focus has shifted to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. In the short term, precious metals may remain volatile at high levels but are expected to be in an upward-trending pattern. The medium to long term is also expected to be bullish [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Gold 2506 contract closed at $3441.8 per ounce, up 3.6%; US silver 2507 contract closed at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.96%. SHFE gold 2506 main contract closed at 797.2 yuan per gram, up 1.39%; SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8235 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% [2]. - SHFE gold main continuous contract was at 794.8 yuan per gram, up 1.86%; SGX gold TD was at 792.87 yuan per gram, up 1.72%; CME gold main contract was at $3441.8 per ounce, up 2.94%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was at 8235 yuan per kilogram, up 0.65%; SGX silver TD was at 8221 yuan per kilogram, up 0.71%; CME silver main contract was at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.33%. SHFE - TD gold was at 1.93 yuan per gram, up 141.25%; SHFE - TD silver was at 14 yuan per kilogram, up 5.56%. CME gold - silver ratio was at 102.94, up 0.6% [5]. Fund Holdings and Inventories - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.43 tons to 937.96 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 13958.7 tons. In terms of inventories, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 959.8 tons; as of the week ending April 25, SGX silver inventory decreased by 42.8 tons to 1640.1 tons [3]. - SHFE gold inventory was 15648 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1263.0356 tons, down 0.69%. SHFE gold position was 127407 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold position was 937.96 tons, down 0.15%. SHFE silver inventory was 959.785 tons, up 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15592.713 tons, up 0.13%. SGX silver inventory was 1640.07 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position was 232016 lots, unchanged; SLV silver position was 13958.73495 tons, unchanged [15][16]. This Week's Focus - New Fed journalist Nick Timiraos wrote that the Fed will be more inclined to "control inflation" in the face of the dilemma of economic recession and inflation pressure and may not cut interest rates without clear signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and an increase in the unemployment rate. Investors are turning their attention to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Although this interest rate decision is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged, investors are concerned about Powell's forward - looking guidance on future interest rate cuts at the press conference. This week's data is generally light. There will be a series of events including the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference early Thursday, the Bank of England's interest rate decision and related reports in the evening, and several speeches by Fed officials on Friday. Also, pay attention to the progress of global trade war negotiations [3]. Nanhua's View - In the medium to long term, it may be bullish. Gold's monthly chart remains strong, and the daily chart has turned strong. In the short term, London gold should focus on the resistance at $3430. If it breaks through, it can be further expected to reach $3500, with support at $3350 and strong support at $3200. London silver's trend is slightly weaker than that of gold, and it is short - term range - bound, with support at $32 and resistance at $33.7. If it breaks through, it can be expected to reach $34 and $34.5. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [4]. Other Market Indicators - The US dollar index was at 99.2342, down 0.56%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.2097, up 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 41218.83 points, down 0.24%. WTI crude oil spot was at $59.09 per barrel, up 3.43%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9356 per ton, up 1.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.36%, up 0.69%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 2.04%, down 1.92%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 6% [21].