金信期货日刊-20250507

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the alumina futures price has been continuously declining, hitting new lows and breaking key support levels, mainly due to a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The subsequent trend depends on the direction of ore prices and the scale of production cuts [3][4] - The stock index futures market is calm without major negative factors, and the short - term is expected to continue the volatile and bullish pattern [7] - After the holiday, the A - share market had a good start, with small - cap stocks led by the CSI 1000 performing well, rising more than 2% [8] - The medium - and long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is more likely to be in a strong volatile trend, but it faces a short - term technical correction [11][12] - In May, the iron ore market has a large supply surplus pressure due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality increases the risk of high valuations. It is recommended to consider shorting at high levels [16] - The glass market needs the real estate stimulus effect or major policy to boost demand. The short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] - The caustic soda market price is running at a low level, with no sign of improvement in downstream demand. It is expected to be weak in the short term [22] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - Supply: Multiple new domestic alumina production capacity projects have been put into operation, and overseas projects have also released capacity, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand: The downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the demand for alumina has limited growth, unable to absorb the excess supply [3] - Cost: The shipment of Guinea bauxite has increased significantly, and the import price has continued to decline. The cost support for alumina has weakened [3] Stock Index Futures - Market situation: There are no major negative factors, and today's large gap - up positive line indicates a short - term volatile and bullish pattern [7] Gold - Long - term: The medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11] - Short - term: There is a technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains [12] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, downstream export reduction and shipment increase lead to a large supply surplus, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season [16] - Strategy: Consider shorting at high levels due to heavy upward pressure [16] Glass - Demand: Demand growth depends on real estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Market situation: The price hit a new low today, and the short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] Caustic Soda - Market price: Running at a low level [22] - Demand: Downstream demand shows no sign of improvement, especially the continuous production cut in the alumina industry [22] - Outlook: Expected to be weak in the short term [22]