宝城期货动力煤早报-20250507

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is "oscillation". The bearish factors for power coal are still piling up, and the market sentiment remains weak. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue, and domestic coal prices are likely to remain at a low level [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - The power coal market is dominated by bearish factors, and the supply - demand situation shows no significant reversal in the short term [4]. Supply - side Factors - In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and the power coal output remained high. Although the import volume may decline slightly year - on - year, the reduction is limited, and the coal supply pressure remains high [4]. Demand - side Factors - The demand side of power coal faces double negative impacts: the seasonal weakening of thermal coal demand and the suppression of non - thermal coal demand by Sino - US trade frictions. The off - season demand will continue to suppress coal prices [4]. Inventory Situation - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 31.075 million tons. Although there was a slight weekly de - stocking of 257,000 tons, it remained at a high level of 31 million tons, and the inventory was 7.264 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]. Weather Factor - According to the latest forecast of the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures than the same period of the year, the temperatures in the rest of the country are close to or higher than the same period of the year. The off - season demand will still suppress coal prices [4].