尿素：下方支撑增加

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lower support for urea is increasing [1] - In the short - term, before the "boots land", urea is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and the 9 - 1 month spread remains in a positive spread pattern [4] - This week, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to show a downward pattern [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,881 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,868 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the trading volume was 405,017 lots, a decrease of 591,451 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 231,434 lots, an increase of 18,240 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,970 tons, an increase of 111 tons; the trading volume was 1.513204 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.164616 billion yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 1, up 6; the Fengxi - disk basis was - 61, up 26; the Dongguang - disk basis was - 91, down 24; the UR09 - UR01 spread was 86, up 7 [2] - Spot Market: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, while others increased. For example, the price of Shandong Ruixing increased by 70 yuan to 1,840 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 50 yuan to 1,820 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi regions also increased. The operating rate was 88.34%, up 0.39 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,720 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] 2. Industry News - As of April 30, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.1267 million tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 11.90%. The industrial demand continued to weaken, agricultural fertilizer preparation was postponed, and the realization of high - price orders was slow, resulting in an increase in the inventory of some urea enterprises. However, due to the strong short - term speculation of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to decline this week [3] - Fundamentally, the top - dressing demand in Northeast China and the summer fertilizer demand in Central China are being gradually released, and the grass - roots level is replenishing urea as a raw material for rigid demand. In addition, some off - market information has increased the short - term speculation of traders. Therefore, under the joint release of rigid demand and hoarding, the urea futures have risen sharply [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4]