宝城期货国债期货早报-20250507

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects treasury bond futures to fluctuate strongly in the short term as the expectation of macro - policy intensification is rising and the domestic interest - rate cut expectation is approaching. The 4 - month manufacturing PMI data decline indicates that subsequent growth - stabilizing policies will gradually increase, and with the recent appreciation pressure on the RMB, the conditions for an interest - rate cut are relatively sufficient, despite the reduced necessity for a rate cut due to strong travel data during the May Day holiday and uncertain overseas factors [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is the weakening of the manufacturing PMI and the increasing expectation of an interest - rate cut [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with an upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. Strong travel data during the May Day holiday showed strong macro - economic resilience, reducing the necessity for an interest - rate cut. Overseas tariff war disturbances have weakened marginally, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is still unclear, which disturbs the central bank's interest - rate cut expectation. However, the weakening of the April manufacturing PMI data indicates that subsequent growth - stabilizing policies will increase, and with the RMB appreciation pressure, the conditions for an interest - rate cut are sufficient [4].