铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of copper is firm, which supports the copper price. The copper market shows certain price fluctuations and supply - demand characteristics, and is also affected by macro and micro news [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 77,600 with a daily increase of 0.49%, and the night - session closing price was 78,320 with a night - session increase of 0.93%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,520 with a daily increase of 4.32% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 83,514, a decrease of 6,040 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,625, an increase of 4,071. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,860, an increase of 69, and the open interest was 289,000, an increase of 584 [1]. - Futures Inventory: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 24,922, a decrease of 3,244 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 195,625, a decrease of 1,675. The LME Copper注销仓单比 was 44.45%, a decrease of 0.45% [1]. - Spreads: There were various changes in different spreads, such as the LME copper ascension and premium, the spot - to - futures near - month spread, etc. For example, the spot - to - futures near - month spread increased by 55 to 285 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The EU plans to expand counter - measures and may impose tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods if negotiations fail. The Fed may delay interest rate cuts due to concerns about inflation. China's Caixin Services PMI in April was 50.7 with a slowdown in new order growth [1]. - Micro News: Peru's Antamina Mining Company shut down its mine due to a safety accident. The 2025 - 2026 global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus, with 289,000 tons in 2025 and 209,000 tons in 2026. In the first quarter of this year, Codelco's output was 296,000 tons, a 0.3% increase year - on - year. Chile's copper output in March was 477,049 tons, a 9.1% increase year - on - year, and Zambia's copper output in the first quarter increased by 30% to about 224,000 tons [1][3]. 3.3 Industry Data - From January to March 2025, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved an operating income of 2,135.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.5%; the operating cost was 2,015.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%; and the total profit was 65.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.6% [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive trend [3].