烧碱：短期震荡偏强，后期仍有压力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday, caustic soda futures may be short - term oscillating stronger based on the holiday spot price trend and the new capacity launch of alumina. However, considering the return of 05 warehouse receipts to the spot market and the weakness of the demand side, caustic soda is still in a negative feedback pattern [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On May 7, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2498, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 61 [1] 3.2 Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 800 yuan/ton today, up 2.56% from the previous period. After the May Day holiday, most enterprises in Shandong had good sales, low inventory, and the price showed an upward trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in enterprise inventory and delivery volume data, and there is a possibility of further price increases [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Demand Side: Alumina has low profit and high raw material caustic soda inventory. Although new capacity launch increases the rigid demand, the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda is weak. Non - aluminum demand is generally weak, and some industries such as viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and pulp and paper industries are greatly affected by the trade war, with obvious declines in production. Exports can support caustic soda, but the purchasing of foreign merchants is cautious due to the trade war [3] - Supply Side: There will still be new maintenance in May. Since the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturer's load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply. Although in the first quarter, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream was limited due to the high profit of caustic soda, if caustic soda and liquid chlorine decline, marginal device supply will be affected by profit [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2] for integers, indicating a neutral trend [4]