五矿期货农产品早报-20250507

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean/Meal: There is a strong trend of inventory accumulation for soybeans and soybean meal in the next three months. The cost of soybean arrivals in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress the price of soy - related products [3]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats face significant downward pressure on prices in the short term, but may be supported in the medium term if the macro - economy stabilizes [9]. - Sugar: The supply shortage of raw sugar is alleviated, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [12]. - Cotton: The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - Eggs: The supply of eggs dominates the price, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [17]. - Pigs: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and a short - selling strategy after short - term rebounds is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - Important Information: Overnight US soybeans closed lower. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The soybean arrivals cost has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress prices [3]. - Trading Strategy: Near - term soybean meal prices are expected to decline, and far - month contracts may fluctuate weakly compared to US soybeans. Pay attention to trading rhythms [5]. Oils and Fats - Important Information: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The domestic spot basis of oils and fats fluctuated [7][8]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats face downward pressure in the short term. Pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. They may be supported in the medium term if the macro - economy stabilizes [9]. Sugar - Important Information: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the first half of April [11]. - Trading Strategy: The price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. The price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [12]. Cotton - Important Information: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated weakly. The US cotton planting rate was 21% as of May 4, 2025 [14]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and domestic inventory changes [15]. Eggs - Spot Information: The domestic egg price was half - stable and half - falling. It is expected to be stable or decline today [16]. - Trading Strategy: The supply of eggs dominates the price. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [17]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price was mainly stable. The supply of live pigs may increase, and the price is expected to be weak in the near future [19]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little. A short - selling strategy after short - term rebounds is recommended [20].