高盛：全球视角-处于危机边缘

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the US-China trade relations, expecting a reduction in tariffs from approximately 160% to around 60% soon, which could enhance investment sentiment in related sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - The resilience in hard economic data has reassured investors, with improved employment reports and jobless claims indicating stability in the labor market, contributing to a significant easing of financial conditions [4][9]. - Despite the positive indicators, the report maintains a 12-month recession risk estimate of 45%, highlighting potential tariff increases in other sectors and the lagging nature of hard data during downturns [9][12]. - The outlook for monetary policy remains uncertain, with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, reflecting a dovish stance amid economic challenges [15][19]. Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - The Trump administration has softened aggressive tariff policies, with expectations of a significant reduction in tariffs on both sides, which could lead to improved trade dynamics [1][3]. Economic Resilience - Recent employment data and jobless claims suggest continued resilience in the labor market, contributing to a sharp easing of financial conditions, with a projected peak financial conditions drag on US GDP growth decreasing from 1.0 percentage points to 0.2 percentage points [4][8]. Recession Risks - The report highlights a 45% recession risk over the next 12 months, with concerns about potential tariff increases in various sectors and the impact of pre-buying on economic data [9][12]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report anticipates further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with a dovish outlook for monetary policy in response to economic conditions [15][19]. Market Strategy - The report advises caution for investors, suggesting a weaker dollar and higher gold prices as key themes, while being bullish on UK rates, copper, and US natural gas, but bearish on oil [26].