高盛：中国农业主题动态-关税与大豆

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Dabeinong (DBN) for biotech seeds and Muyuan Foods, driven by a sustainable margin outlook [3][58]. Core Insights - The higher tariffs imposed by China on US agricultural imports, particularly soybeans, are expected to add inflationary pressure on major grains, but the overall inflation impact may be mitigated by strong harvests in Brazil and soft domestic demand for animal protein [1][12]. - Biotech seed penetration in China is projected to increase significantly, with commercial planting expected to reach 90% of corn planting areas for the 25/26E season, up from 61% in the previous season [2]. - Dabeinong's market share in approved biotech seed varieties remains dominant at 60%, indicating strong competitive positioning in the market [2]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report discusses the historical context of tariffs, noting that a 135% tariff on US soybeans could lead to a wider pricing disparity compared to Brazilian soybeans, although this may be offset by alternative supply factors and weak domestic demand [12][11]. Biotech Seeds - Feedback from the industry indicates that biotech seed penetration is expected to reach 10% for the 25/26E planting season, a significant increase from 2% a year ago [2]. - The report highlights the positive feedback on trait payment terms, which could further enhance the adoption of biotech seeds [2]. Agricultural Coverage - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the agricultural sector, emphasizing the importance of tracking domestic animal protein supply and cost, as well as the supply/demand balance of major grains globally and in China [23]. - Key charts and data points are included to help investors gauge trends in protein consumption, crush margins, inventory, import, and pricing for major proteins [23].