中辉期货豆粕日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term bearish and oscillating. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills have increased for four consecutive weeks, and soybean crushing has rebounded slightly month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase gradually. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's May report and US soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term bearish. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills have decreased month - on - month, and the rapeseed meal inventory is lower than the same period in the past two years. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded again, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. Although it rebounded slightly yesterday, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed export and the US Department of Agriculture's report [1][7]. - Palm Oil: Short - term decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure. Pay attention to the international palm oil price. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April. The domestic palm oil opened lower and closed down yesterday. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [1][9]. - Cotton: Short - term rebound. The sowing of US cotton continues, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. The market sentiment has recovered, and US cotton is expected to continue to strengthen in the short - term. In China, the cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of foreign trade improvement, which may drive the short - term rebound of the market [1][12]. - Red Dates: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high inventory pressure remains. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals have increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has emerged, which may strengthen the short - term support of the market [1][14]. - Live Pigs: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline. The operation should maintain a bearish idea, and beware of the risk of secondary fattening pressure release from late May to June [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3544.57 yuan/ton, down 1.60%. The soybean crushing profit in Zhangjiagang decreased by 189.40 yuan/ton [2]. - Market Situation: Internationally, the positive impact of trade tariffs has ended, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestically, 4 - 6 monthly average imports are over 10 million tons. As of April 24, domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills increased for four consecutive weeks, and the soybean meal inventory was still decreasing [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2548 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2576.84 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 240 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Situation: As of April 30, coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The 5 - 7 month rapeseed import is expected to decline year - on - year, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded [7]. Palm Oil - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7974 yuan/ton, down 2.14% from the previous day. The national average price was 8760 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. The weekly commercial inventory decreased by 1.19 million tons [8]. - Market Situation: As of May 2, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. India's April palm oil import is expected to decline by 24%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April, and the inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started [9]. Cotton - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12745 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.49% to 14139 yuan/ton. The mainstream area spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.20% [10]. - Market Situation: Internationally, as of May 4, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the 2025 cotton intention - planting area increased by 1.5%, and the output is estimated to be about 7 million tons. The demand is in the off - season, but the foreign trade expectation has improved [11]. Red Dates - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9045 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang increased by 1 vehicle [13]. - Market Situation: In the production area, southern Xinjiang gray - date trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The 36 - sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, but is still higher than the same period. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect emerged [14]. Live Pigs - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume increased by 16.82% month - on - month [15]. - Market Situation: In the short - term, the farm slaughter progress in April was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. In the medium - term, the third - quarter pig market may face increased slaughter pressure. The current standard - fat price difference is positive, and the secondary - fattening sentiment has slowed down. After the stocking, the slaughter demand growth has slowed down [16].