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商品期货早班车-20250507
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-05-07 03:01

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold long positions in gold; for silver, it is advisable to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio when appropriate [1]. - For base metals, different metals have different trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, such as maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy for copper and zinc, and waiting for downstream restocking for lead [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, the overall situation is relatively balanced, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended, and some specific contract positions need to be adjusted according to market conditions [4]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends and trading strategies, such as a bearish view on sugar and a wait - and - see approach for logs [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell short on rebounds, while the overall trend of oil prices is bearish [9][10]. - In the shipping industry, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic in the context of the trade war, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Overnight, precious metals strengthened with international gold prices rising 2.9%. There are geopolitical events, economic data showing a widened US trade deficit, and changes in inventory. It is recommended to hold long gold positions [1]. - Silver: It is recommended to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio. After the holiday, gold rose while silver was weak, and the gold - silver ratio reached 102 [1]. Base Metals - Copper: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front and a tight supply of copper ore, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Zinc: The price of the 2505 contract rose 0.44% yesterday. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term price has support from low inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the arrival of imported zinc and inventory changes [2][3]. - Lead: The price of the 2505 contract fell 1.07% yesterday. The supply of raw materials is tight, and consumption is weak after the holiday. It is advisable to buy on dips after the price falls [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply may increase slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of the main contract fell. Supply is high, and demand has different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to sell short on the main contract or short the far - month contract [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell short on the 07 contract's rebounds [3]. - Tin: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front, a short - term range - bound trading strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2510 contract was flat. Inventory is decreasing, and the overall supply - demand is balanced. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and short positions in the coil - rebar spread can be held [4]. - Iron Ore: The main 2509 contract was strong. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, and demand has limited growth space. It is recommended to close previous short positions, and aggressive investors can try to go long [4]. - Coking Coal: The main 2509 contract was weak. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [4]. Agricultural Products Market - Soybean Meal: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is different in the near and far term, and demand is weak. The domestic market is short - term bearish and mid - term follows the international market [5]. - Corn: The 2507 contract was strong. Supply is tightening, and demand is increasing. The price is expected to rise [6][7]. - Sugar: The 09 contract rose slightly. Brazil's new season has a strong start, and the domestic market is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar, with a bearish trading strategy [7]. - Cotton: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [7]. - Logs: The 07 contract rose slightly. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - Palm Oil: The price fell yesterday. Supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is improving. The short - term price is falling, and the mid - term is in a weak stage [7]. - Eggs: The 2506 contract continued to fall. Supply is high, and the price is expected to be weak [7][8]. - Hogs: The 2509 contract was range - bound. Supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline with resistance [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds in the short and long term [9]. - PVC: The price fell. Supply is increasing, and inventory is falling. It is recommended to hedge after the price returns to a high premium [9]. - Glass: The price fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure [9]. - PP: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by tariffs. A short - term bearish strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the start - up rate of PDH plants [9][10]. - Crude Oil: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by trade frictions. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds, with a short - term trading range of Brent at $55 - 65 per barrel [10]. - Styrene: The price fell slightly. Supply may accumulate inventory, and demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to follow the cost and be weak [10]. - Soda Ash: The price fell. Supply has maintenance, and demand is affected by glass. The price is expected to fall, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - Caustic Soda: The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak except for the alumina industry. The price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. Shipping - European Line Container Shipping: The main contract rose 0.1%. Trade war and geopolitical factors affect supply and demand. The overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11].