中原期货晨会纪要-20250507

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a strong performance on May 6, with nearly 5000 stocks rising, and certain concepts such as controllable nuclear fusion and rare earth permanent magnets surging. The market's trading volume increased to 1.36 trillion yuan. The market sentiment was positive, but it still faced challenges from external factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision and international trade policies [7]. - Different sectors of commodities presented various trends. For example, most chemical products' prices increased on May 7 compared to May 6, while some agricultural products had mixed price movements. Each commodity had its own supply - demand relationship and influencing factors [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - China and the US will conduct economic and trade talks. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [7]. - The A - share market had a good start after the "May Day" holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.84%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.97%, and the Northbound 50 Index rose 3.21%. The market trading volume reached 1.36 trillion yuan [7]. - China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident in achieving the 5% growth target in 2025. It will continue to build a unified domestic market and expand high - level opening - up [7]. - Apple AI may launch some functions in the Chinese mainland in the iOS 18.6 system, with Baidu Wenxin Yiyan as the core cloud intelligent engine and Alibaba providing the review mechanism. Also, Apple may change the iPhone release pattern from 2026 [7]. - Xiaomi is accelerating the development of self - developed SoC chips, with a team of about 1000 employees operating independently. The new - generation chip's performance is comparable to Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen2 [8]. - The Fed is facing a dilemma, and there are hints that it may postpone interest - rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May, and is more concerned about Fed Chairman Powell's policy stance [8]. - The EU will formulate counter - measures against US tariffs on EU products, with an expected impact on 549 billion euros of EU exports to the US. If negotiations fail, the EU plans to impose tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods [8]. - In the Japan - US tariff negotiations, the US refuses to cancel the 10% benchmark tariff and the additional 14% tariff on Japan, putting Japan in a difficult situation [8]. - The UK and India signed a free - trade agreement, which is expected to increase bilateral trade by 25.5 billion pounds annually in the long run [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There is sufficient supply, and the market is in the stage of speculating on planting area, with few topics for speculation [13]. - Oils and Fats: According to MPOB monthly report forecasts, Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports in April 2025 are expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is raised. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market's trend after the holiday, but the upside is limited [13]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's good start of the sugar - crushing season and India's strong production forecast, while the domestic market has a good de - stocking rhythm. Traders are advised to go long with a light position near 5860 yuan, and add positions if the price breaks through 5910 yuan [13]. - Corn: The market is in a tug - of - war. Port inventories are high, suppressing price increases, but state purchases and reduced imports are improving market expectations. Short - term trading is recommended in the 2340 - 2390 yuan range [13]. - Hogs: The national hog price is stable. Group farms are holding back supplies, and there is a game between supply and demand. The terminal consumption is weak, and the futures market's main contract has shifted. Short - term operations are recommended [13][15]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs is weakening. The inventory in production areas is increasing, and the southern sales areas are facing pressure. There are opportunities for short - selling on the futures market [15]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is rising. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is accumulating. With the approaching of summer fertilizer demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The market is volatile and strengthening, and caution is advised for unilateral operations [15]. - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda is still in excess, although there are some new - capacity releases and demand changes. The price lacks upward momentum, and the 2509 contract may continue to trade at a low level [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market at ports is weakening after the holiday, and the second - round price increase of coke is on hold. The prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure, but may stabilize after the government's meeting [15]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The prices of copper and aluminum may continue to trade at a low level due to uncertainties in US tariff negotiations and the US economic downturn. Copper is relatively stronger due to support from the mining end [17]. - Alumina: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing. Although there are short - term production cuts, the supply is still excessive in the medium term. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - term [17]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased during the holiday. The market may get a short - term boost from the government's financial policies, but overall, they will trade in a low - level range [17]. - Silicon Ferroalloys: The prices of silicon ferroalloys are falling. Steel mills are expected to start new rounds of procurement with a price - cutting attitude. The prices of silicon ferroalloys may trade at a low level in the short term [17][18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate is falling, with a bearish supply - demand situation. The cost support is weakening, and short positions are recommended to be held, but beware of a rebound [18]. 2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Indexes: The A - share market had a good start on May 6. The market sentiment is positive, and there are opportunities for low - buying and combination arbitrage strategies [18][19]. - Stock Index Options: The A - share market rose on May 6, and the options market showed different trends in terms of volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy straddles after the volatility decline [19].