国泰君安期货所长早读-20250507

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Today, at 9 am, a news conference will be held to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectation management," and it is expected that a series of favorable policies will be released [7]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is weak, but the downside space is limited. The 09 contract has priced in some negative factors, and there is still trading time left. Attention should be paid to the May USDA supply - demand report, US trade negotiations, and US soybean weather [8]. - Industrial silicon is still bearish in the short term. High inventory pressures will cause futures prices to continue to test the cost line of upstream factories, and the strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the short - term trend of the futures is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and the price may have a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - The trend of styrene is weak. After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders of styrene decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on the futures [13]. Summaries by Directory Pre - market Insights - There will be a news conference at 9 am today by the central bank, CSRC, etc. to introduce financial policies, and favorable policies are expected to be released [7]. Recommended by the Director - Soybean Meal: Short - term trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Negative factors have been priced in, and the 09 contract still has trading time. Attention should be paid to relevant events [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Short - term bearish. High inventory, high weekly production, and weak downstream demand will lead to price declines. The strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - Polysilicon: Spot price is expected to decline, and the short - term futures trend is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and there may be a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - Styrene: Trend is weak. After the holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [13]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals: Gold data is better than expected, and silver is oscillating downward. The trend intensity of gold is 1, and that of silver is - 1 [19][23]. - Copper: The spot price is firm, supporting the futures price. The trend intensity is 1 [25][27]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum has insufficient upward momentum, and alumina is consolidating at a low level. The trend intensity of aluminum is - 1, and that of alumina is 0 [28][30]. - Zinc: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [31][32]. - Lead: Under short - term pressure. The trend intensity is - 1 [34]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel prices are back in a narrow - range oscillation, and the downside and upside spaces are converging. The spot price of stainless steel has declined to repair the basis, and there is still support below. The trend intensity of both is 0 [36][38]. - Tin: The price weakened during the holiday. The trend intensity is - 1 [40][44]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The weak state of industrial silicon continues, and the fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [46][48]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - demand surplus continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - Iron Ore: The expectation is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [52][53]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The demand expectation is poor, and the prices are fluctuating at a low level. The trend intensity of both is 0 [56][60]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon: The prices are dragged down by costs and are trending weakly. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [62][66]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Affected by policy expectations, the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The trend intensity of both is 0 [67][69]. - Steam Coal: There is a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [73][74]. - Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene is in a positive carry trade for the monthly spread, and the processing margin is expanding. The strategy for PTA is to go long PTA and short SC, and for MEG, it is to go long PTA and short MEG [76][77].