国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings but gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Gold: 1 [8] - Silver: -1 [8] - Copper: 1 [12] - Aluminum: -1 [15] - Alumina: 0 [15] - Zinc: 0 [17] - Lead: -1 [19] - Nickel: 0 [23] - Stainless steel: 0 [23] - Tin: -1 [29] - Industrial silicon: -1 [33] - Polysilicon: -1 [33] - Lithium carbonate: 0 [36] 2. Core Views - Gold: Data is better than expected [2][4] - Silver: Experiences an oscillatory decline [2][4] - Copper: Firm spot prices support the price [2][10] - Aluminum: Lacks upward momentum [2][13] - Alumina: Trades in a low - level consolidation [2][13] - Zinc: Moves in an oscillatory manner [2][16] - Lead: Faces short - term pressure [2][19] - Nickel: The upside and downside spaces converge, and nickel prices return to narrow - range oscillations [2][21] - Stainless steel: Spot prices decline to repair the basis, and there is still support below the futures price [2][21] - Tin: Prices weakened during the holiday [2][24] - Industrial silicon: The weak state of the futures market continues [2][30] - Polysilicon: The fundamental situation remains weak [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand surplus continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change [2][34] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, the closing price of沪金2506 was 794.80 with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the night - session closing price was 809.28 with a 1.60% increase. The SPDR gold ETF持仓 decreased by 5. For silver, the closing price of沪银2506 was 8235 with a 0.64% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8275.00 with a 0.45% increase. The SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before) decreased by 57 [5]. - News: Various macro - events such as high - level economic dialogues, central bank policy introductions, and geopolitical events may impact the market [5][9]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 77,600 with a 0.49% increase, and the night - session closing price was 78320 with a 0.93% increase. The伦铜3M电子盘 had a 4.32% increase. The注销仓单 ratio of伦铜 was 44.45%, down 0.45% [10]. - News: The EU plans to expand counter - measures against US goods. The Fed may delay interest rate cuts. A Peruvian mine halted production due to an accident. Global refined copper is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [10][12]. Aluminum and Alumina - Fundamentals: The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 19785, down 125. The沪氧化铝主力合约 closed at 2675, down 54. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profit was 3387.46, down 88.38. The domestic aluminum锭社会库存 was 64.10 million tons, down 0.80 million tons [13]. - News: A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant conducted a spot alumina procurement tender, and a Shanxi alumina plant stopped a production line due to raw material issues [13][15]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22355, down 0.38%. The伦锌3M电子盘 increased by 1.04%. The LME CASH - 3M升贴水 was - 37.09, down 4.09 [16]. - News: Central bank and regulatory authorities will introduce a package of financial policies [17]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16700, down 0.83%. The伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 1.30%. The沪铅期货库存 increased by 1331 tons [19]. - News: Central bank and regulatory authorities will introduce a package of financial policies [19]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,630, up 910. The不锈钢主力 closed at 12,735, up 65. The 8 - 12%高镍生铁 (factory price) was 959, down 10 [21]. - News: An Indonesian nickel - iron project is increasing production capacity, and Indonesia has adjusted resource tax rates for nickel products [21][22][23]. Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 260,970 with a 0.26% increase, and the night - session closing price was 262,210 with a 0.73% increase. The伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 3.61%. The伦锡 inventory was 2,655, unchanged [25]. - News: Various macro - events may impact the market [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The Si2506收盘价 was 8,325, down 215. The PS2506收盘价 was 36,410, down 835. The industrial silicon现货升贴水 (against华东Si5530) was + 1020, up 100 [31]. - News: Longi Green Energy signed a major cooperation agreement in the photovoltaic field [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: The 2507合约 (closing price) was 65,260, down 700. The battery - grade碳酸锂 was 67,100, down 850. The lithium辉石精矿 (6%, CIF China) was 767, down 6 [34]. - News: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. BYD's new - energy vehicle sales increased [34][36].