美债策略周报-20250507

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a "V" shaped rebound in long-term yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 7.9 basis points during the week, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and a reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve's interest rate path [2][11][70] - The U.S. GDP annualized value for Q1 has turned negative at -0.3%, marking the first decline since March 2022, primarily due to a combined drag from net exports and government spending of -5.1%, reflecting the downward pressure from tariffs on the economy [5][68] - The liquidity and supply-demand dynamics in the Treasury market show a significant drop in reserves by over $200 billion to $3 trillion, while the SOFR rate has increased by 8 basis points, indicating that the funding market has not been significantly impacted by the Treasury sell-off [5][35] Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market remains stable, with the Treasury Department maintaining a dovish stance in its refinancing plans, projecting a net financing scale of $514 billion for Q2 and $554 billion for Q3, while the issuance of T-Bills continues at a high level [19][23] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries is characterized by a decline in short positions, although they remain elevated, with the total short position in 2-year Treasury futures at approximately $429.5 billion, reflecting ongoing basis trading and roll-over trading [24][27] - The yield on Treasury carry trades has been rising, indicating renewed interest from overseas institutions, with the actual returns on 10-year Treasuries remaining attractive after accounting for currency hedging costs [28][70] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment shows that April's non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, with the private sector contributing 167,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.19% [48][55] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for April recorded a decline to 48.7%, indicating contraction, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6%, suggesting a mixed outlook for the service sector [62][67] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates as early as June if economic pressures from tariffs and trade disputes continue to escalate, with a potential end to balance sheet reduction expected by the end of the year [69][70]