中辉期货原油日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - Rebound: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/R, ethylene glycol, and asphalt are expected to rebound. The reasons include the release of negative factors, trade negotiations between China and the US, and the rebound of upstream oil prices [1]. - Stabilization: L and PP are expected to stabilize. The basis has strengthened significantly, and the oil price has rebounded. However, in the long - term, there is pressure from new device production and potential downward movement of crude oil prices [1]. - Oscillation: PVC is expected to oscillate. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, a slight increase in warehouse receipts, and the start of trade negotiations between China and the US, the market sentiment has improved [1]. - Weakness: Glass is expected to be weak. Overseas tariff concerns persist, there is no incremental domestic policy, and the supply is stable at a low level while demand recovery is slow [1]. - Neutral with Oscillation: Soda ash is expected to oscillate at a low level. There are maintenance plans in May, leading to an expected reduction in supply, but new production capacity is expected, and the inventory is at a high level [1]. - Bearish: Methanol and urea are expected to be bearish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, with relatively weak cost support [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Condition: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, while the settlement price of the domestic market's first trading day decreased. WTI rose by 3.43%, Brent rose by 3.19%, and SC decreased by 3.92% [2]. - Basic Logic: After the significant decline during the May Day holiday, the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase was released. China decided to engage in contact with the US. OPEC+ started increasing production in April, and 8 member countries will increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in June. The EIA expects global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day. US commercial crude and gasoline inventories decreased [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, the oil supply will be in excess, and the oil price will fluctuate between $55 - 65. In the short - term, there is a technical rebound after the over - decline, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to be bearish on the rebound. SC should be monitored in the range of [460 - 470] [4]. LPG - Market Condition: On May 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,399 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,770 yuan/ton, 4,935 yuan/ton, and 5,230 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - Basic Logic: During the May Day holiday, international oil prices weakened under the double impact of OPEC+ expansion and tariff disturbances. After the decline, the negative factors were released, and the cost side stabilized, causing LPG to rebound with the oil price. The warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly, and the PDH device profit remained flat while the alkylation device profit decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand of some devices changed [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, its trend is mainly linked to upstream crude oil, and it is bearish with potential for further decline. Technically, it rebounds on the daily line but lacks upward momentum, showing an oscillatory trend. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4430 - 4470] [8]. L - Market Condition: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - Basic Logic: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and some import windows are open. The agricultural film is at the end of the seasonal peak. The basis has strengthened significantly, the oil price has rebounded, and the device maintains high - level operation with sufficient supply. Short - term short positions can be partially closed. In the long - term, due to high device production pressure and potential downward movement of crude oil prices, it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be bearish on rallies. L should be monitored in the range of [6980 - 7080] [11]. PP - Market Condition: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - Basic Logic: A large - scale PP device was put into operation in the first quarter, and attention should be paid to the progress of a new PDH device. Due to tariff disturbances, product exports are under pressure. Many devices have restarted, and the short position of the L - PP spread can be closed. In the long - term, due to high device production pressure and potential downward movement of crude oil prices, it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be bearish on rallies. PP should be monitored in the range of [6960 - 7080] [14]. PVC - Market Condition: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - Basic Logic: A new device was put into operation in January, and the supply is under high pressure. The decline in real estate completion area has narrowed, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased seasonally. PVC exports from January to March increased significantly. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, a slight increase in warehouse receipts, and the start of trade negotiations between China and the US, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and be bullish on pullbacks [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short - term and be bullish on pullbacks. V should be monitored in the range of [4850 - 4970] [17]. PX - Market Condition: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,212 yuan/ton (+6). The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton (-6) [18]. - Basic Logic: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have different maintenance and production reduction situations. The PXN spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side is weakening as many PTA devices are under maintenance. The inventory is high. In May, the fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations recently. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: PX should be monitored in the range of [6130, 6280] [19]. PTA - Market Condition: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,560 yuan/ton (+20), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,434 yuan/ton (-6). The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton (+12), and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton (+26) [20]. - Basic Logic: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. PTA inventory is decreasing, and the spot processing fee is at a low level. It follows cost fluctuations. After the holiday, it opened lower with low valuation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: TA should be monitored in the range of [4370, 4480] [22]. MEG - Market Condition: On April 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,214 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,155 yuan/ton (-32). The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton (-2), and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton (+26) [23]. - Basic Logic: Many devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The arrival volume is high, and the import in March exceeded expectations. The demand side is relatively good but is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. The inventory is high, and the cost support is weak. After the holiday, it is expected to open lower. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: EG should be monitored in the range of [4130, 4230] [25]. Glass - Market Condition: The spot market prices mostly decreased, the futures market was weak, the basis in Shahe weakened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [26]. - Basic Logic: At the macro level, the Sino - US trade war has entered a new stage, and there is no clear incremental policy information. Tariff concerns remain, and the macro sentiment is cautious. The supply pressure is slowly decreasing, but the demand improvement is slow, and the market is expected to be pessimistic. The supply is stable at a low level, the demand shows seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the upstream inventory has increased again. Pay attention to global market risk preferences, downstream production and sales, and domestic hedging policies [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG should be monitored in the range of [1060, 1090], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [27]. Soda Ash - Market Condition: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, the futures market was under pressure and declined, the basis widened, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28]. - Basic Logic: Soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may shrink again. However, the start - up rate remains high, and major large - scale devices are operating stably. The downstream demand is weak, and the terminal users are mostly on the sidelines. The alkali plant inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory is still high. The profits of the two main production methods have increased. Pay attention to device maintenance, the trends of related industrial chain products, and macro - sentiment changes [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA should be monitored in the range of [1320, 1350] [29]. Methanol - Market Condition: On April 30, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,443 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,251 yuan/ton (-27). The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton (+28), and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton (+33). The China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 72 US dollars/ton (+1) [30]. - Basic Logic: Previously maintained devices have resumed production, and the overseas methanol import is expected to be gradually realized, increasing supply pressure. The domestic methanol comprehensive profit remains high, and the weighted start - up load continues to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the MTO device start - up load has decreased. The traditional demand is in the seasonal off - season. The cost support is weak. In the short - term, the methanol market remains relatively loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: MA should be monitored in the range of [2220, 2260] [31].