能源化工日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The PVC market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and is expected to be dominated by macro factors, with the price showing weak consolidation. The烧碱 market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, and is expected to fluctuate weakly. The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term. The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The plastic market is in a traditional demand off - season, and its price was greatly affected by the tariff policy in April, with large supply - side pressure [1][2][3][5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity PVC - On May 6, PVC fluctuated weakly. In the long - term, demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, with high production pressure in the second quarter. Currently, inventory reduction is okay, but the fundamental drive is limited. The price is mainly macro - led, and the valuation is low [1]. 烧碱 - On May 6, the main contract of 烧碱 closed at 2498 yuan/ton (+19). The market price in Shandong increased. As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid 烧碱 sample enterprises increased. Supply is sufficient, demand has not improved, and the price is low. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the delivery volume of Weiqiao and inventory reduction [2]. Rubber - On May 6, the rubber system fluctuated. Before the holiday, it was in a volatile state, and the external market rose slightly during the holiday. NR in Thailand is weak as the tapping is about to start, RU has some support from storage, and BR is more affected by crude oil. If there are no major changes in domestic policies and tariffs, the market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply [3]. Urea - The main contract of urea rose 1.95% to close at 1881 yuan/ton. Driven by export news and agricultural demand, the price is strong. The daily output is at a historical high. Agricultural demand still has a gap, industrial demand is slightly improving, and there is obvious substitution export. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the 09 contract operating in the 1750 - 1950 range [5]. Methanol - Recently, some olefin plants in coastal areas have shut down as scheduled, and some in Ningxia and Shandong have external procurement needs due to internal or self - owned methanol plant maintenance. The traditional demand for methanol has limited support. The inventory of sample enterprises has been accumulating, and the port inventory is decreasing. The supply in the mainland is shrinking, and the demand in some areas may be slightly reduced. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [6]. Plastic - On May 6, the main contract of plastic fell 1.61% to 6987 yuan/ton. In April, affected by the tariff policy, the price dropped significantly. The supply - side has new capacity coming on stream in the second quarter, with high pressure. The demand - side is in the off - season, with the agricultural film industry having a lower start - up rate. The inventory is neutral, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices is low [7].