环球市场动态：OPEC+增产对油价的拖累难言结束

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a positive start after the May Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% to 3,316.11 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.84% to 10,082.34 points[16] - The international oil price rebounded over 3% from a four-year low, with NYMEX crude oil rising 3.43% to $59.09 per barrel, driven by signs of a potential decline in U.S. production[27] Economic Indicators - During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic trips were made in China, with total spending exceeding 180 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase[16] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high in March, raising concerns about economic stability[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling 389 points (0.95%) to 40,829 points, and the S&P 500 dropping 0.77% to 5,606 points[9] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 index rising for the 16th consecutive day, closing at 8,597 points, while the German DAX index fell 0.41% to 23,249 points[9] Commodity Trends - The commodity market outlook remains weak, with expectations of "oversupply" if OPEC+ continues to increase production, potentially leading to downward pressure on oil prices[6] - Gold is expected to outperform copper and oil in the commodity market, maintaining a strong position amid economic uncertainties[6] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.59% to 99.238, influenced by low U.S. Treasury yields and market expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[27] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, with the exchange rate at 1.137, reflecting a 0.5% increase[26] Fixed Income Market - The U.S. Treasury market showed strong demand, particularly for the 10-year Treasury auction, which had an indirect bid ratio of 91.1%, the highest since February 2023[29] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was reported at 4.29%, down 4.9 basis points from the previous day[29]