港股互联网行业策略报告：全球变局下的复盘与审视，哪些方向值得坚守？-20250507

Core Insights - The report highlights that Alibaba's e-commerce business is expected to see marginal improvement, with a potential recovery in take rate driven by increased penetration of full-site promotions and the application of basic software service fees [3] - Tencent's gaming performance during the Spring Festival was strong, with attention on upcoming titles like "Valorant Mobile" and "Honor of Kings World," while advertising revenue is expected to benefit from AI upgrades [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the overall adjustment in the internet sector is more influenced by liquidity and sentiment rather than fundamental factors, with a focus on Alibaba and Tencent as resilient players in the long-term AI narrative [4] Internet Sector Overview - The report indicates that the internet sector has experienced overall adjustments that are less related to fundamentals and more to liquidity and sentiment fluctuations, particularly amid concerns over US-China decoupling risks [4] - It is noted that Alibaba's cross-border e-commerce exposure to the US is relatively low, and Tencent's overseas gaming operations have not been affected by tariffs, suggesting a potential for recovery in stock prices for these companies [4] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting the strong fundamentals of Alibaba and Tencent, which align with the long-term AI theme [4] Gaming Sector - The gaming market is projected to see high growth in early 2025, driven by the Spring Festival and the performance of evergreen games, with Tencent and NetEase being recommended for their strong game portfolios [27][28] - The report notes that the actual sales revenue of the Chinese gaming market reached 590.1 billion yuan in January-February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [33] Advertising Sector - The advertising sector is expected to see cautious growth in Q1 2025, with a focus on loading rates, advertising technology, and the impact of e-commerce subsidies [34][36] - Tencent is highlighted as a key player in the advertising space, with AI applications expected to enhance targeting capabilities and drive revenue growth [36] E-commerce Sector - The report emphasizes that domestic competition in the e-commerce sector will remain a long-term theme, with Alibaba expected to improve its monetization capabilities amid competitive pressures [37][41] - The anticipated GMV growth rates for 2025 show a narrowing gap between traditional platforms like Alibaba and emerging platforms, indicating a potential return of merchants to traditional platforms [41] Online Music Sector - The online music industry is expected to continue growing, with Tencent Music maintaining a leading position and achieving a 25% revenue growth in subscription income [42] - NetEase Cloud Music is focusing on user base expansion, with a 22% growth in subscription revenue driven by scale, indicating potential for profit release through cost optimization [42]