国金期货黄金日报-20250507

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold entered an adjustment phase in late April after a strong rally, and this adjustment is a response to the continuous sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and have a significant range, and it may span the entire month of May. However, after the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [2][6]. - The Sino - US tariff war has entered a stalemate. Although there is a glimmer of hope for a resolution, it will be a long - term, complex process of re - balancing and re - dividing based on each side's strength. The outcome of the tariff negotiation will have a significant impact on the global financial market and gold prices [5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased after the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data [5][6]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - On April 2, after Trump announced a large - scale global tariff policy, gold initially fell with other risk assets, and the comex2506 contract once fell below $3000 per ounce. Then, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, it rebounded strongly and reached the key level of $3500 per ounce in just two weeks. Subsequently, it has been in an adjustment phase for two weeks. This adjustment is a response to the impact of market expectation changes and Trump's actions on the financial market since December 19, and it is expected to last for several weeks with a significant adjustment range [2]. b) Fundamental Analysis - During the Sino - US tariff war stalemate, the price movement of gold in different trading sessions has changed. In the early and middle of April when gold was rising rapidly, the Asian trading session was more likely to push up the price, while the European and American sessions might see a slight decline. During the adjustment period, the situation is reversed [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is evaluating high - level tariff negotiations with the US. China has set clear conditions for the negotiation, emphasizing that the US should show sincerity by correcting wrong practices and canceling unilateral tariff increases. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is a long - term and complex process, and it is unlikely to be resolved within a few weeks as the US hopes [4][5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts to bring manufacturing back to the US. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data on Friday, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased [5][6]. - Looking ahead to May, gold is in an adjustment phase after a rapid and sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and may cover the whole month of May. After the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the continuous gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [6]. c) Futures Monthly K - Line - The report provides the monthly K - line charts of Shanghai Futures Gold weighted price and comex Gold weighted price, but no further analysis is given [7].