铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the domestic market has rebounded due to the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US officials in Switzerland. The A - share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, and the bond market is influenced by expectations of monetary policy and tariff policies [2]. - Gold prices remain strong, driven by factors such as potential US tariffs on imported drugs, Chinese demand, and the EU's trade stance. The market is awaiting Powell's speech after the Fed meeting [3]. - Copper prices are strengthening as Sino - US economic and trade meetings are about to start, and the global trade situation is expected to improve [4]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure near the 20,000 - yuan mark due to inventory accumulation during the holiday and the approaching seasonal off - season for consumption [6][7]. - Alumina prices have some support from production cuts, but new production capacity in May may weaken this support [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the approaching Sino - US economic and trade talks and the low absolute inventory providing support. Attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of the current - month contract [10][11]. - Lead prices have limited upside and downside space. Although inventory accumulation during the May Day holiday was small, supply reduction due to the production cut of recycled lead provides some support [12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to the tight balance between supply and demand [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and cost inversion [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly volatile as the supply increase expectation is clear and the market is pessimistic [17]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate as the improvement in fundamentals is limited [18][19]. - Crude oil prices are oscillating. The OPEC + production increase plan and the dim global demand outlook keep the medium - term fundamentals bearish [20]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks and policy expectations [21]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate upward due to the improvement in macro - sentiment [22]. - Soybean meal prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to the increasing domestic soybean arrivals and the expected supply tightening of US soybeans in the long term. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal but has some support from aquaculture demand [23][24]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate weakly due to the increase in supply during the production season and the inventory increase after the holiday [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US trade deficit in March reached a record high of $140.5 billion. Sino - US officials will hold talks in Switzerland. The market risk appetite has contracted, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, the US stock market has corrected, the 10Y US Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, gold prices have increased by more than 2%, and oil prices have risen by nearly 3% [2]. - Domestic: After the holiday, the A - share market had a significant increase in trading volume, with the turnover reaching 1.36 trillion yuan. The market's risk appetite has significantly increased. The bond market is influenced by expectations of monetary policy and tariff policies [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices rose by 3.60% on Tuesday, reaching above the $3400 mark. Silver prices also increased by 2.96% to $33.44 per ounce. The increase was due to concerns about US tariffs on imported drugs, strong Chinese demand, and the EU's trade stance [3]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper broke through the $9500 mark. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level meeting is approaching, and the global trade situation is expected to improve. The inventory of LME copper decreased to 196,000 tons [4]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,785 yuan/ton, down 1%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 22,000 tons during the holiday. The market sentiment is cautious, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [6][7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 1.94% to 2675 yuan/ton. An alumina enterprise in Shandong reduced production by 550,000 tons. Production cuts in May provide some support, but new production capacity may weaken it [8][9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated. The inventory of zinc ingots increased during the holiday. Glencore's zinc production in Q1 2025 increased by 4% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of the current - month contract [10][11]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated. A small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China plans to stop production for maintenance. The inventory increased slightly during the holiday. Lead prices have limited upside and downside space [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly. The demand for tin is stable but will seasonally weaken later. The supply is expected to improve but remains tight in the second quarter. Tin prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts remained high. The supply is difficult to expand due to cost inversion, and the demand is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices were weakly volatile. The supply is expected to increase, and the market is pessimistic. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated widely. The Indonesian nickel ore reference price has decreased, but the shortage situation has not changed significantly. The production of electrolytic nickel in May is expected to decrease, and stainless steel production is under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil prices oscillated strongly. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels in June, and the global demand outlook is dim. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures opened high and then fell, and rebounded at night. The Sino - US economic and trade talks are approaching, and policy expectations are strengthening. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The inventory of major ports in Australia and Brazil increased. The macro - sentiment has improved, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate upward [22]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - As of May 2, the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal increased. The sowing progress of US soybeans was 30%. Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and soybean meal prices may oscillate weakly. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal but has some support [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil prices fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil in April increased by 24.62%, and the production from May 1 - 5 increased by 60.17%. The inventory of three major oils increased. Palm oil prices may oscillate weakly [25][26]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on May 6, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [27]. 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents the industrial data of various metals, such as the inventory, spot price, and basis of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals, comparing the data between May 6 and April 30 [28][30][32].