生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250507

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - The basis is that from sow and piglet data, the supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; demand support for pig prices is weak in the second and third quarters; the current live - pig slaughter weight is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding side, which is bearish for the future market [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On May 6, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 705 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are weakly operating due to the expected increase in subsequent slaughter [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1030 lots in positions today, with a position of about 70,800 lots, a maximum price of 13,970 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,855 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,960 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase month - by - month, but the increase is limited. From piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase fluctuantly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Bearish logic: The breeding side has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season, and demand support for pig prices is limited [3] - Bullish logic: Slaughter enterprises' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs; the increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal may raise the cost of pig farming [3] 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, the current live - pig slaughter weight is increasing, indicating inventory accumulation, and if there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may reach new lows. Due to high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term and weak short - term weight - reduction drive, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 4. Market Overview - The national average live - pig slaughter price on May 6 was 14.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% compared to April 30. The average slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6] - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts from 01 to 11 increased compared to April 30, with the increase ranging from 0.15% to 0.48% [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan increased by 170 yuan/ton or 19.32% compared to April 30 [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - It shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 05 - 07 contracts, and the price difference between the 05 - 09 contracts [14]