Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "sideways" [2] Group 2: Core Views - A-share market rose significantly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.83% and turnover reaching 1.36 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The market focus has shifted from overseas to domestic demand. Although the decline in A-share market revenue growth has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, it is still below the policy rate. The net profit in Q1 increased by about 4% year-on-year, but ROE is still at the bottoming stage. The index has limited short-term upward momentum. The Politburo meeting in April did not introduce significantly unexpected policies, and fiscal measures to boost domestic demand remain the main focus. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%, indicating an active fiscal policy. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, with a significantly earlier rhythm. Overseas, the essence of the US tariff policy is to relieve the pressure of insufficient capital account surplus by reducing the current account deficit, which is difficult to solve in the short term. The tariff policy is a means rather than an end, and its real purpose is to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations. During the negotiation process between other economies and the US, the US tariff policy on China may become a bargaining chip, and China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea may be marginally affected on the demand side. This policy also has a long-term impact on the A-share market, and China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the logic of central fiscal promotion of consumption more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be relatively dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes can focus on sub - sectors such as domestic substitution and high capital expenditure [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract up 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.04%, the 2 - year main contract down 0.06%, and the 10 - year main contract basically stable. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%. There were 1.087 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively balanced, with the DR001 rate down 7bp to 1.71% and the DR007 rate down 7bp to 1.73%. The current bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors. Monetary policy mainly relies on structural policy tools, and the need for short - term interest rate cuts is low. The bond market has priced in the weakening of the fundamentals and interest rate cut expectations in advance, and there is insufficient downward momentum for treasury bond yields. In the short term, it is expected to move sideways [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes in the Second Quarter - For stock index futures, the IH rose from 2,609.2 to 2,629.6, an increase of 0.78%; the IF rose from 3,716.2 to 3,766.2, an increase of 1.35%; the IC rose from 5,497.0 to 5,622.0, an increase of 2.27%; the IM rose from 5,801.4 to 5,953.2, an increase of 2.62% [3] - For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose from 2,633.2 to 2,647.7, an increase of 0.55%; the SSE 300 rose from 3,770.6 to 3,808.5, an increase of 1.01%; the CSI 500 rose from 5,631.8 to 5,740.3, an increase of 1.93%; the CSI 1000 rose from 5,950.1 to 6,102.9, an increase of 2.57% [3] - For treasury bond futures, the TS fell from 102.37 to 102.31, a decrease of 0.06%; the TF fell from 106.10 to 106.06, a decrease of 0.04%; the T rose from 109.00 to 109.05, an increase of 0.04%; the TL rose from 120.76 to 120.97, an increase of 0.17% [3] 2. Market News - On May 6, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian stated at a regular press conference that the tariff war was initiated by the US, and China's attitude is consistent and clear: ready to fight to the end if the US wants to fight, and the door for negotiation is always open. Lin Jian emphasized that the US has recently expressed its hope to negotiate with China, and there are no winners in tariff and trade wars. If the US really wants to solve problems through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their corresponding basis [6][7][8][9][10] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical trends of treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of basis for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical trends of inter - delivery spreads for different - term treasury bond futures, the historical trends of cross - variety spreads, and the historical trends of capital interest rates [13][15][16][17] 3.3 Exchange Rates - The report provides the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [20][21][22][24][25] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [27] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, research on key industry sectors, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [27]
光大期货金融期货日报-20250507
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-05-07 04:57