Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the fundamentals remain in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is at a low level with low valuation, and the export end still provides support. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Although the spot trading has slightly improved, the short - term market oscillates. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,854 yuan/ton (-88), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+48), and the South China basis was -84 yuan/ton (+38) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,770 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was -589 yuan/ton (-56), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was -741 yuan/ton (-157), and the PVC export profit was 18.0 US dollars/ton (+3.6) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 41.1 tons (-0.9), the social PVC inventory was 40.4 tons (-1.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 77.69% (+0.47%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 74.52% (+2.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.80% (+1.13%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 58.4 tons (-1.8) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,498 yuan/ton (+19), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+44) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,330 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The caustic soda profit in Shandong was 1,496 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 704.0 yuan/ton (-97.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 72.04 yuan/ton (+42.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,330.43 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.58 tons (+0.73), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.51 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.90% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 75.96% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 60.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 79.71% (+2.54%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: In May, the scale of PVC enterprise maintenance is expected to decrease month - on - month, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so the operation is expected to increase month - on - month, and the supply - side pressure remains high [3]. - Demand: The terminal real estate market is still weak, the operation rate of downstream PVC product enterprises continues to decline and is at a low level in the same period. The downstream market mainly makes rigid purchases at low prices, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. Although PVC exports are doing well and the social inventory is decreasing, the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping and BIS certification policies and US tariff policies are expected to have a negative impact [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Previously shut - down and maintained devices have gradually resumed operation, and the caustic soda operation rate has increased month - on - month. Since the current comprehensive profit has not fallen into the loss range, most upstream enterprises still maintain high operation, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to ease in the short term [3]. - Demand: The price of the main downstream product, alumina, is running at a low level, some marginal alumina plants are in the loss range, and there is still great pressure on alumina production reduction, which is expected to reduce the demand for caustic soda. The non - aluminum end's replenishment rhythm has slowed down, the operation of terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has declined significantly, and US tariff policies are expected to continue to impact downstream industries, so the non - aluminum demand is still expected to be weak [3]. Strategy - PVC is rated as neutral. The fundamentals are in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is low, the valuation is low, and the export end still provides support. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic soda is rated as neutral. Although the spot trading has slightly improved and the short - term market oscillates, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [4].
山东现货略有回暖，烧碱盘面震荡上行
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-07 05:00