Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]
油价反复波动，低硫燃料油市场结构短期走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-07 05:14