铁矿石：政策增量预期升温，短期择机空配为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current reality of iron ore is strong, but the medium - to - long - term loose pattern is difficult to change. Short - term news - stimulated rebounds are still opportunities for short - allocation, and it is recommended to be bearish [2]. - The short - term domestic demand is basically at its peak but waiting for the inflection point. In the medium term, the market has not fully priced in the negative impact on the export side. As the supply side continues to recover, the supply - demand of iron ore is expected to remain loose overall [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Due to the maintenance of individual port berths in Australia, Australia's shipments have significantly declined, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions remain relatively stable. In May, it is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to see a steady increase in shipments, with the supporting strength of the supply side weakening marginally [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period, with molten iron reaching over 245,000 tons per day (according to Mysteel). It is expected that the increase in molten iron is limited, but currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. The short - term demand side may remain at a high level, and later, the negative impact on the export side needs to be gradually realized [3]. Inventory - Considering the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory level in May will remain relatively stable or tend to decline, but overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery amplitude of supply - side shipments and the inflection point of the demand side [4]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the i2509 contract is 690 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton; the price range of the overseas FE06 contract is 95 - 98 US dollars/ton. Short positions should be held [4].