黑色建材日报：市场矛盾不足，矿价弱势震荡-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] 2. Core Views - The market contradictions are insufficient, and the ore price is weakly oscillating. The spot trading of glass and soda ash is weak and stable, with their futures opening high and closing low. The cost center of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has shifted downwards, and their prices have reached new lows [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The overall spot market trading was weak and stable, showing improvement compared to the holiday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: There were both ignition and water - release production lines recently. With ignition production lines not yet delivering goods, the supply pressure may be slightly relieved, and glass inventory decreased slightly. However, due to insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability were weak, and prices lacked upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, so enterprises' intention to reduce inventory through sales may be stronger [1]. - Strategy: Oscillatory [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures oscillated weakly after opening higher. The market demand was average, mainly for rigid - need procurement. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Recently, the soda ash production has been steadily increasing, maintaining a loose state. Demand is relatively stable, with restocking at low prices. The growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The pressure to reduce inventory is still large. It is expected that soda ash plants will intermittently reduce production for maintenance to relieve the inventory accumulation pressure [1]. - Strategy: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: As market sentiment further weakened, the silicomanganese futures oscillated downward, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of silicomanganese was running weakly. Factories basically stopped quoting prices and adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was also 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continued to decline. The molten iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for silicomanganese was resilient. Since the silicomanganese production capacity was sufficient, once the profit improved, the production could increase rapidly. Considering that the port inventory of manganese ore was in the stage of rising from a low level, it still provided some support for alloy costs. The near - month contract was continuously suppressed by warehouse receipts [3]. - Strategy: Oscillatory [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures led the decline in the black - goods sector, showing overall weakness, and the price reached a new low recently. The spot market of ferrosilicon was running weakly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 6050 - 6100 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Although the demand remained strong, the ferrosilicon production still declined under the condition of losses. The manufacturers' inventory decreased from a high level, and the downstream enterprises' inventory remained at a low level. Due to the relatively loose ferrosilicon production capacity, the price would still be suppressed by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of industrial policies on the black - goods sector in the future [3]. - Strategy: Oscillatory [4]