五一季节性累库符合预期，关注后期库存走势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long the near and short the far in SHFE Aluminum [5] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal inventory build - up during the May Day holiday is normal, and attention should be paid to the later inventory trend. In May, domestic consumption is expected to remain strong and social inventory will continue to decline, but the decline rate may slow down due to pre - emptive exports [3] - For alumina, the expansion of maintenance scope supports the spot market, but the decline in bauxite prices reduces costs, and the expected oversupply remains unchanged. The decline in ore prices will have a negative feedback on alumina prices [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On May 6, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 19,850 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 19,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 19,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remained unchanged at - 90 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On May 6, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 19,920 yuan/ton, closed at 19,785 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or - 1% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 20,050 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 19,775 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,706 lots, an increase of 11,695 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 183,758 lots, a decrease of 111 lots from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Inventory - As of May 6, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 636,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 411,575 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Spot - On May 6, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,850 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,880 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 348 US dollars/ton. In the domestic Shandong region, 4,800 tons of alumina were traded at a spot ex - factory price of 2,810 yuan/ton; overseas, 30,000 tons of Australian alumina were traded at a FOB price of 348 US dollars/ton [2][3] Alumina Futures - On May 6, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,740 yuan/ton, closed at 2,675 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton or - 1.94% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,748 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,664 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 294,245 lots, a decrease of 211,862 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 287,582 lots, an increase of 25,409 lots from the previous trading day [2]