Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,060 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybeans: It's currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed. South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 220), Tianjin 3,180 yuan/ton (- 120), Rizhao 3,090 yuan/ton (- 440), Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton (- 160) [2] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - U.S. soybean trade. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Currently, the spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease as the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans restores oil mill operations. Post - holiday downstream restocking may boost short - term trading volume [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are: 2,184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia; 2,404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai; 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/680 - 720 bulk density); 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Bayuquan Port (680 - 730 bulk density/15% moisture) [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import substitution from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is gradually tightening due to factors such as the end of the harvest season, a sharp decrease in imports in the first quarter, and the price increase of new wheat. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing and low consumption [3] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the gap between old and new grains, and the corn price is likely to rise. Short - term trading should focus on long positions [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,030 - 78,350 yuan, up 240 yuan, with a premium of 250 - 320 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [4] - Market analysis: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, with high volatility in overseas capital markets. The Fed's uncertain actions add to the long - term uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem persists, and the rapid decline in domestic copper inventory intensifies the game between reality and expectations [5] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang. Attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 66,850 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 65,150 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two remains unchanged at 1,700 yuan/ton [6] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, with lithium ore prices dropping rapidly and reducing smelting enterprises' profit margins. Supply is increasing, especially from the mica end, and the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further expand with rising temperatures. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6] - Inventory: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131,864 (+ 259) physical tons. The monthly inventory in March is 90,070 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 47% and a month - on - month increase of 17% [7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with the contango structure weakening and the current valuation being moderately low. Policy supports the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, raw material prices have fluctuated weakly this week, and the cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. Short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (Grade 1) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, with domestic production capacity recovering steadily and the coking plant utilization rate stable. Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand is weak, with steel mills reducing production and iron - water output expected to decline. Independent coking enterprises maintain low raw - material inventories, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited upside potential [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 760 yuan [10] - Market analysis: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. Supply has decreased slightly, with Australian shipments falling and Brazilian shipments rising. Port inventory has decreased by 1.1239 million tons. Demand has increased, with domestic steel mills' iron - water output rising, but steel mills' raw - material procurement remains cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the iron ore 2505 contract may be weak and fluctuate. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. The price of WTI crude oil may decline, but it has technical support at 55 dollars/barrel. The U.S. trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the second - quarter demand may be severely affected [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the follow - up trend of the domestic market as WTI has support at 55 dollars/barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in, and the market is now driven by fundamentals. The supply is relatively loose, with domestic and Southeast Asian rubber plantations starting to harvest. The U.S. automobile tariff may suppress global rubber demand. Attention should be paid to domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract may rebound near the support level of 14,000 yuan/ton [11] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,700 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the two is 350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate increased by 0.70% week - on - week to 79.33% last week. Domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. As of April 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 4.94% week - on - week to 653,700 tons [12] - Reference view: Due to the weak demand, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [12] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,414.69 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [13] - Market analysis: Before the holiday, the overall operation rate of soda ash was 89.44%, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the production was 755,100 tons, down 0.05 million tons. The inventory of manufacturers decreased by 20,300 tons to 1.691 million tons, and the social inventory also decreased. Demand is average, with downstream enterprises only replenishing inventory for low - price goods [13] - Reference view: After the holiday, the futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [13]
安粮期货豆粕日报-20250507
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-05-07 05:32