航运衍生品数据日报-20250507

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The market is in a state of shock. The average price in early May was $1700, which has fallen below the long - term agreement price. Airlines plan to raise prices in late May and June, but due to loose capacity in late May, the early - May quotes are expected to continue. The spot freight rate has fallen below the long - term agreement price and is close to the cost line, with limited downward space. The European line freight rate is in a state of oversupply, and the market is still not optimistic. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and the cabin opening situation in June, as the cabin opening price in June is related to the trends of the 06 and 08 contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Rate Index - SCFI and CCFI: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1341, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 0, a decrease of 100.00%. Among its sub - indices, SCFI - West US increased by 6.12%, SCFIS - West US by 7.37%, SCFI - East US by 0.80%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 4.76%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.49%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 1.88% [2]. - EC Contracts: For EC contracts, the current values of EC2506, EC2508, etc. have different changes compared to the previous values. For example, EC2506 decreased by 1.87%, and EC2508 increased by 0.28%. The positions of these contracts also changed, with EC2506's position increasing by 2618 and EC2508's by 1199 [2]. - Month - to - Month Differences: The current month - to - month differences for 6 - 8, 8 - 10, and 10 - 12 contracts are - 210.4, 244.9, and - 185.0 respectively, with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry News - Capacity Transfer: The slowdown of China's exports to the US has led Chinese manufacturers to offer promotions to European importers. The new capacity may stabilize the Asia - Europe shipping route, but there will be violent fluctuations in Asia - Europe capacity if the China - US situation eases [2]. - Retail and Supply Chain: Due to the China - US tariff dispute, large retailers' suppliers warn of significant price increases and supply shortages during the holiday season. The cargo transportation volume during the holiday season has decreased by more than 50% year - on - year [3]. - Tariff Policies: The US has imposed a 25% tariff on most auto parts since May 2, but parts from Canada or Mexico produced by workers with an hourly wage of over $16 are exempt [3]. - Shipping Companies' Surcharges: Maersk will impose a peak - season surcharge of $2000 - $2500 per container on goods from the Middle East and the Indian sub - continent to the US and Canadian East Coasts from June 1. Hapag - Lloyd announced a $1000 per - container freight increase surcharge from the same date [4]. - Market Response in Europe: European retailers show little interest in Chinese manufacturers' promotion plans. The proportion of sailings cancelled on the Asia - Europe route in May decreased, and the capacity reached a record high [4]. - New Index and Port Issues: The New York Shipping Exchange (NYSHEX) launched two new indices for US import container transportation. Nordic ports are facing long - term congestion problems [5]. - US West Coast Ports: Los Angeles Port plans to cancel 17 sailings in May and 12 in June [6]. - Political Tensions: Trump threatened to impose new large - scale sanctions on China for buying Iranian oil [6].