集运日报：中方决定与美方接触，现货运价相对稳定，盘面震荡运行，风险偏好者可提前布局贸易战缓和预期-20250507

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core logic this year depends on international tariff policy trends. In April, the US may change tariff policies for countries like Canada, Mexico, and Europe. Near the pricing window for long - term contracts on US routes, retaliatory tariffs are added to negotiation means, increasing uncertainty in shipping. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in Q2 and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] - Although the SCFIS is continuously declining, the spot freight rate is relatively stable, and investors are观望. The overall market fluctuates widely under the long - short game. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Rate Index - On April 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 908.48 points, down 1.39% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 796.14 points, down 5.19% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1320.69 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1235.01 points, up 1.53% from the previous period [1] - On April 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1340.93 points, down 6.91 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1121.08 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1200 USD/TEU, down 4.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1497.15 points, down 0.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2272 USD/FEU, up 6.12% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 837.43 points, up 1.7% from the previous period [1] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the April manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the April services PMI flash was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the April composite PMI flash was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [1] - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1] - In April, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI flash was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI flash was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [2] Market Conditions and Trading Strategies - On May 6, the main contract 2506 closed at 1299.5, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 33,900 lots and an open interest of 35,900 lots, an increase of 2618 lots from the previous day [3] - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short term. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, with a short window period and large fluctuations [3] - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long with a light position when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [3] - Circuit breakers: For contracts from 2504 to 2602, the circuit breaker is adjusted to 19% [3] - Margin: For contracts from 2504 to 2602, the margin is adjusted to 29% [3] - Daily opening limit: For all contracts from 2504 to 2602, the daily opening limit is 100 lots [3]