新能源及有色金属日报：低库存成为当下主要关注点-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory is the main current concern, and consumer resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices [1][3] - The cost of TC is not the main concern, the supply - side pressure remains, and the consumer side is the focus, with a possible weakening of consumption after May [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$37.09/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,860 yuan/ton, SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 22,910 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium rose by 60 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On May 6, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,390 yuan/ton, closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 115,056 lots, a decrease of 306 lots, and the position was 111,715 lots, an increase of 5,719 lots. The highest price was 22,580 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,300 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 172,925 tons, a decrease of 875 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Cost: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upward space in the future, and it is not the main concern for now [3] - Supply: The expected output in May will decline slightly but still maintain high - year - on - year growth, and there may be a delay in maintenance, so the supply - side pressure remains [3] - Consumption: It is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory and the rising spot premium support zinc prices. However, consumption may face a test in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy is neutral [4]