4月地产销售热度回落，预期后续政策走强

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][68] Core Viewpoints - In April, the real estate sales heat has declined, but there are expectations for stronger policies in the future. The central bank's vice governor disclosed that personal housing loans increased by 220 billion yuan in Q1, which is over 200 billion yuan more than the previous year. Various cities have introduced new housing policies to support home purchases, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the real estate market [3][13]. - Short-term factors include the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate sector during the April Politburo meeting, the urgency to expand domestic demand and promote investment amid escalating global trade tensions, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [3][13]. - Long-term factors suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the US may provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China. The Politburo meeting in September 2024 explicitly stated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for policies such as lowering existing mortgage rates and transaction taxes to support demand [3][13]. Summary by Sections Recent High-frequency Data - As of April 30, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 395.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8% from last week, but a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1275.7 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from last week and down 25.2% year-on-year [4][22]. Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index remained unchanged. The building materials index dropped by 2.14%. Among sub-sectors, refractory materials increased by 1.61%, while cement manufacturing decreased by 2.25% [5][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality blue-chip stocks benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [6]. 2. Undervalued stocks benefiting from the alleviation of B-end credit risks, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [6]. 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [6].