甲醇日评：宏观预期提振-20250507

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol market was affected by macro - expectations. The night session of commodities rose due to the expected "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" and the rebound of oil prices, giving methanol some upward momentum. However, from a fundamental perspective, there are still few bullish factors for methanol in May as Iranian imports are expected to continue to increase. The strategy recommendation is short - term observation (View Score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 in Taicang decreased from 2316.00 yuan/ton on April 30, 2025, to 2288.00 yuan/ton on May 6, 2025, a decrease of 1.21%. MA05 decreased by 0.48% and MA09 decreased by 1.42% [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Spot prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased, with Inner Mongolia having the largest decline of 2.09%. Prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 5.50 yuan/ton [1] b) Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased, with Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 both down 1.42 - 1.43% [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] c) Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 13.90%, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - MTO Profit: Northwest MTO profit increased by 47.08%, and East China MTO profit increased by 6.15% [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: Profits of acetic acid, MTBE, and formaldehyde changed. MTBE had a significant decline of 177.35%, while formaldehyde increased by 15.36% [1] d) Important Information - Domestic Futures Prices: Methanol's main contract MA2509 weakened, opening at 2243 yuan/ton, closing at 2219 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 511,233 lots and open interest of 693,078, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign Information: A 1.8 - million - ton methanol plant in the US restarted on May 1, and a 1.7 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance [1]