Xinda Securities·2025-05-07 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The consumption market in 2024-2025 is showing a recovery driven by "service consumption and online retail" [9] - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 13.43 trillion yuan and 12.47 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3.8% and 4.6% respectively [9] - The retail sales of goods in Q1 2025 amounted to 11.06 trillion yuan, accounting for 88.7% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [9] - Online retail sales reached 2.99 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, maintaining a growth rate of 7.6% [9] - The CPI in Q1 2025 showed a slight decline of 0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.3%, indicating a structural improvement in consumer demand [12] Summary by Sections 1. Brand Momentum and Growth Focus - The consumption market is steadily recovering, with service consumption and online retail as the main growth drivers [9] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 were 13.43 trillion yuan and 12.47 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.8% and 4.6% [9] 2. Performance Overview: IP Operation Deepening and Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, and an adjusted profit of 3.4 billion yuan, up 185.9% [4] - In Q1 2025, Pop Mart's revenue is expected to grow by 165%-170% year-on-year [4] - Miniso's overall revenue grew by 23% in 2024, with overseas market growth reaching 42% [4] - Pop Mart's overseas revenue surged by 375% to 5.07 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 38.9% of total revenue [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on Pop Mart, which is experiencing rapid growth both domestically and internationally, and Miniso, which shows sustained high growth overseas while steadily improving domestic operations [5]