4月非农点评：就业相对稳健，但未来仍有下行风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current U.S. job market is relatively robust, with the April non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations, stable unemployment rate, and a decline in the U6 unemployment rate. The impact of tariff policies is not yet significant, reducing the Fed's urgency to cut interest rates. However, there are still risks of a downturn in employment data in the future [6][18]. - After the release of the April non - farm employment report, the Fed is likely to stay on hold in May, and the market has postponed the pricing of the first full - scale interest rate cut within the year from June to July. The possibility of a rate cut in June depends on the decline in economic and employment data. The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy remains high [6][18][19]. - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in April's non - farm employment indicates that the U.S. job market is not strong. Tariff policies may gradually have a negative impact on the job market, and there is a risk of a decline in employment data in the second quarter [6][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 U.S. April Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Unemployment Rate Unchanged, Wage Growth Slowed - The U.S. added 177,000 non - farm jobs in April, lower than March but higher than the expected 138,000. The combined non - farm job additions in February and March were revised down by 58,000 [6][7]. - The main contributors to job growth were in healthcare, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services. The main drags came from manufacturing, retail, utilities, and other services. Government sector job growth only marginally slowed [9]. - The unemployment rate in April remained at 4.2%, and the key U6 unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% for the second consecutive month. The labor force participation rate unexpectedly rose to 62.6% [6][14]. - The average hourly wage growth in April was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, both lower than expected. The average weekly working hours were 34.3 hours [6][15]. 3.2 Commentary: Employment Remains Relatively Robust, but Downside Risks Persist - The relatively robust April non - farm employment report reduces the Fed's urgency to cut interest rates. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 4.3%, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rose, easing the short - term recession risk [6][18][19]. - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in the job market indicates that the U.S. job market is not strong. Tariff policies may gradually have a negative impact on the job market, and there is a risk of a decline in employment data in the second quarter.前瞻 indicators such as the decline in the NFIB business hiring intention and the rebound in initial jobless claims suggest a weakening of employment data in the future. The proportion of long - term unemployed has increased, and the job vacancy rate has been declining, indicating a slowdown in the overall job market [6][20].