皖证监函2017综述：铜价或宽幅运行为主，X因素主导波动

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate widely, with the X - factor driving the volatility. The long - term trend of copper prices is bearish, having completed the entire Kondratieff wave bubble in the first half of 2024. Currently, copper is in a strategic bearish phase, and any rebounds are tactical. The first bearish campaign has ended, and the second bearish campaign window opened in the first half of 2025, centered around the CU2505 - 06 contracts [2][20]. - In May 2025, the market is still within this window. The K - line from March to April has achieved a balance between yin and yang, suggesting that the rebound in the first half of the year has reached a high point. Attention should be paid to the suppression near the 60 - day weekly moving average [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply Side - TC Decline: In April 2025, the average TC dropped to around - 32.51 dollars. The continuous decline in TC indicates a severe mismatch between the mineral and smelting ends, which is a sign of an extreme shock in the mineral end and a major head signal for copper prices in the depression stage [4]. - Production Growth: From January to March 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 353.6 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 5%, and the monthly production was 124.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 8.6%. Although the production growth rate has slightly increased, the smelting end is still in a state of serious loss, and the supply contraction expectation is difficult to change in the short term [2][5]. - Inventory Adjustment: At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of the three global locations was 41.87 million tons, a decrease of about 11.91 million tons compared to the previous month, mainly due to Chinese factors. The global inventory has entered an adjustment phase after reaching a new high, but the long - term inventory cycle trend is difficult to change [7]. Demand Side - Improvement in Financing and M1/M2: In March 2025, the social financing growth rate was 8.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.2, and the financing growth rate rebounded for two consecutive months. M1 increased by 1.5 month - on - month, while M2 remained unchanged. The improvement in M1 is more important, indicating that China has actually entered a new weak inventory cycle [14]. - Recovery in Automobile and Real Estate: From January to March 2025, the cumulative growth rate of automobile sales was 11.2, with a month - on - month change of - 1.9, and the automobile sales maintained double - digit growth for two consecutive months. The real estate sales from January to March were - 3, with a month - on - month change of 2.1, showing a marginal improvement [2]. Fed Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's interest rate meeting in March 2025 maintained the status quo, and the meeting in May is expected to face an uncertain situation. In 2025, the global marginal impact is expected to ease, and Chinese - priced risk assets are expected to perform better [18]. Summary - The long - term trend of copper prices is bearish, and the current second - stage bearish campaign window is centered around the CU2505 - 06 contracts. The K - line from March to April suggests that the rebound in the first half of the year has reached a high point, and the annual high is likely to show a large - scale convergence trend [2][20].