特朗普“百日新政”系统解析：不只是关税

Group 1 - The report highlights the significance of the first 100 days of a presidency as a window to assess the initial effectiveness of governance, with Trump's administration achieving some notable measures but lacking major legislative successes in tax cuts and manufacturing return [1][12] - The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed predicts a sharp decline in the actual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting the negative impact of Trump's announced tariff policies [2][19] - Public opinion polls indicate that Trump's approval ratings are slightly below half, showing a lack of bipartisan support and primarily solidifying his core supporter base [3][38] Group 2 - The report notes that Trump's personnel nominations have progressed smoothly, with 294 individuals nominated and 57 confirmed by the Senate, indicating a steady pace comparable to previous administrations [4][47] - The analysis suggests that trade protection measures may face constraints due to declining inventory-to-sales ratios among manufacturers and wholesalers, as well as a focus on stabilizing long-term bond yields [5][20] - The report anticipates that the tax reform proposal is likely to pass in the third quarter, with the Republican majority in the Senate potentially allowing for its approval without Democratic support [6][20] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential for significant economic impacts from Trump's tariff policies, with predictions of negative growth in GDP and increased uncertainty among economists regarding future economic performance [20][25] - It highlights the mixed signals in the U.S. economic fundamentals, with inflation pressures easing but signs of weakness emerging in the manufacturing and services sectors [23][25] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the effects of tariff policies on economic growth and inflation in the coming months, as the full impact of these measures has yet to be realized [24][25]