光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250507

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Core Views - Urea futures prices strengthened on the first trading day after the holiday, with the spot market also significantly stronger. The daily production level of urea fluctuated at a high level, and the demand side improved. The futures market is expected to continue its strong trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand fulfillment, export situation changes, and price - stabilization policies [1]. - Soda ash futures prices showed a weak and volatile trend after the holiday. The supply is expected to decline due to plant overhauls, and the demand follows as needed. The futures market may experience a phased upward trend, but the long - term pattern remains loose [1]. - Glass futures prices were weak after the holiday. The supply support is limited, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The trading atmosphere improved after the holiday. The futures prices are expected to be strong during the day, and attention should be paid to demand sustainability and macro - sentiment changes [1]. Market Information Urea - On May 6, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 4,970, an increase of 111 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 125 [4]. - On May 6, the daily production of the urea industry was 201,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from April 30 and an increase of 12,500 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 87.47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [4]. - On May 6, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions increased. For example, in Shandong, it was 1,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On May 6, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,799, a decrease of 150 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,806. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,266, a decrease of 175 from the previous trading day [6]. - On May 6, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions varied, with some light - alkali prices slightly increasing [6]. - On May 6, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 86.11% [7]. - On May 6, the average price of the float glass market was 1,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 155,800 tons [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts, such as those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [10][11][19][21]. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [22]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].