光大期货软商品日报-20250507

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, and CF509 declined 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 6,434 lots to 587,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 13,846 yuan per ton, down 79 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,113 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan. With macro - level disturbances, mixed US economic data, and the Fed likely to hold rates in May, the drought impact on US cotton - growing areas has weakened. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a low - level oscillation. There is an expectation of improved Sino - US tariffs and the price is at a relatively low historical level, but it's the off - season for textile and clothing consumption, and the new cotton planting area has increased. Overall, it's expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the 2024/25 sugar - making season as of April 30, 2025, India's crushed sugarcane was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) from the previous year, and sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%). The spot prices of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan were lowered. The raw sugar price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and crude oil but was pressured by the issue of increased production. Considering future imported sugar arrivals, a bearish view is held, but the downward space is not seen as deep due to the limited inventory pressure of domestic sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread was - 235 with no change, the main basis was 1,368, down 65. The spot price in Xinjiang was 13,846, down 79, and the national price was 14,113, down 70 [2]. - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread was 75, up 1, the main basis was 290, down 23. The spot price in Nanning was 6,160, down 10, and in Liuzhou was 6,180, down 20 [2]. 2. Market Information - On May 6, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,116, an increase of 76 from the previous day, with 1,194 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 13,846 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,160 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,148 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,127 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On May 6, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.4, down 0.5 from the previous day, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.4, up 0.5, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.4, down 0.7, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.5, up 0.2 [3]. - On May 6, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,160 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,180 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 28,629, a decrease of 121 from the previous day, with 4,274 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those for cotton (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 7 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 7 - 9 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][13][16].