港股互联网行业策略报告：全球变局下的复盘与审视，哪些方向值得坚守？

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been more reliant on valuation-driven fluctuations compared to the US market, with a CAGR of -1.6% over the past decade and a maximum drawdown of 49.9%[12] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a peak increase of 19.9% following the DeepSeek AI asset revaluation, primarily driven by valuation uplift[16] - The Hang Seng Technology Index's maximum drawdown reached 74.1% since its inception, indicating significant volatility in the tech sector[12] Group 2: Key Stock Recommendations - Alibaba (BABA) is expected to see marginal improvements in its e-commerce business, with a potential recovery in take rates and profit stability[3] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is projected to benefit from strong game performance during the Spring Festival and AI-driven advertising revenue growth[3] - NetEase (9999.HK) remains resilient with no tariff impact on its gaming segment, while Kuaishou (1024.HK) shows stable fundamentals[3] Group 3: Sector Insights - The gaming market is anticipated to grow significantly in early 2025, driven by long-standing games and the Spring Festival, with Tencent and NetEase as key players[33] - The advertising sector is expected to see cautious growth in Q1 2025, influenced by policy changes and AI integration, particularly for Tencent[34] - E-commerce competition remains intense, with Alibaba expected to improve its monetization capabilities amidst a recovering consumer sentiment[41] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks, underperformance in gaming revenue, and intensified competition in the e-commerce sector pose significant threats to market stability[3] - The overall advertising market growth is projected to be cautious, with potential impacts from macroeconomic conditions and policy changes[36]