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转债周记(5月第2周):25Q1基金转债持仓:规模下降,混合二级主导变动
Huaan Securities·2025-05-07 08:16
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, the convertible bond proportion of fixed - income + funds showed a significant downward trend, dropping to 12.37%. The total scale of fixed - income + funds increased from 16645.54 billion yuan in Q4 2024 to 17709.06 billion yuan, while the convertible bond scale decreased slightly from 2230.32 billion yuan to 2190.99 billion yuan [3]. - The net supply of the convertible bond market shrank significantly in Q1 2025. The number of newly - listed convertible bonds decreased from 17 in Q4 2024 to 9, and the listing scale dropped from 222.90 billion yuan to 145.90 billion yuan. The delisting scale increased from 409.15 billion yuan to 1005.59 billion yuan. The market value of convertible bonds held by funds was stable but slightly decreased, and the number of convertible bonds held decreased from 492 to 478 [4]. - In Q1 2025, the convertible bond positions of different types of fixed - income + funds showed structural differentiation. Hybrid secondary bond funds still dominated, but the overall position scale continued the prudent retraction trend. Hybrid primary bond funds adjusted their rhythm slowly after the previous stage of expansion, and the position proportion remained in the central range. The position base of partial - debt hybrid funds was the smallest, and the position proportion continued to converge to a low level [5]. - In Q1 2025, the fund market's convertible bond investment was characterized by "active position adjustment and strategy differentiation". Hybrid secondary bond funds dominated the market trend with flexible position management, showing obvious internal strategy differences. Capital allocation followed the dual - line logic of "stable finance + betting on growth", with the financial sector and tracks such as photovoltaics and semiconductors being concentratedly increased, while delisted targets and traditional cyclical industries were significantly reduced [6]. - In Q1 2025, the investment trend of the convertible bond market tended to be structurally differentiated. Institutional funds strengthened the dual main lines of defense and growth by increasing financial bonds and emerging industry targets, and reduced delisted varieties and industries with declining prosperity to avoid risks. The market formed a layout feature of "stabilizing the center and grasping the structure" under the expectation of loose liquidity [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Situation - Total Scale and Proportion of Convertible Bonds in Fixed - income + Funds: In Q1 2025, the convertible bond proportion of fixed - income + funds decreased significantly. The total scale of fixed - income + funds increased from 14804.61 billion yuan in Q1 2024 to 17709.06 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. In Q1 2025, the convertible bond proportion was 12.37%, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 7.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.58%, indicating that investors' risk preference in the fixed - income + fund market tended to be stable [15]. - Supply Side: In Q1 2025, the convertible bond market continued to shrink, and the net supply decreased significantly. The number of newly - listed convertible bonds was 9, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 47.06%, and the listing scale was 145.9 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 34.55%. The number of delisted convertible bonds was 27, a year - on - year increase of 50%, and the delisting scale was 1005.59 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 145.78% and a year - on - year increase of 239.18% [17]. - Demand Side: In Q1 2025, the market value of convertible bonds held by funds was stable but slightly decreased. The number of convertible bonds held by funds was 478, a year - on - year decrease of 7.54% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.85%. The market value of convertible bonds held by funds increased from 2610 billion yuan in Q1 2024 to 2722 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 4.28%, and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.06% compared with Q4 2024 [23][25]. 3.2 Performance of Convertible Bond Positions of Different Types of Fixed - income + Funds - Position Scale: The convertible bond position scale of different types of fixed - income + funds continued the mild adjustment trend. Hybrid secondary bond funds still dominated the market, and the overall position structure did not change significantly, but the scale gradually became more prudent in retraction. Hybrid primary bond funds showed a phased expansion trend in some quarters, while partial - debt hybrid funds had the smallest position base and the mildest scale change [27]. - Position Trend: The relative relationship of the three types of position scales remained basically unchanged. Hybrid secondary bond funds dominated, fluctuating around 20%, and slightly declined in Q1 2025 after reaching the second peak in Q4 2024. Hybrid primary bond funds had relatively small fluctuations, showing a conservative allocation style. Partial - debt hybrid funds had the lowest position and the most stable changes, and showed a more obvious recovery in Q1 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 From the Perspective of Fund Strategies: Structural Iteration behind Steady Positions - Position Proportion: Hybrid secondary bond funds were the most active in leading the changes of convertible bonds. In the top ten list of fixed - income + fund position reductions, secondary bond funds accounted for 7 seats. In the top ten list of position increases, secondary bond funds accounted for 6 seats, showing significant internal strategy differences [37][38]. - Scale Change: Hybrid secondary bond funds led the scale change of convertible bond positions. In the top ten list of fund scale contractions, secondary bond funds accounted for 6 seats. In the top ten list of fund scale growth, secondary bond funds accounted for 7 seats, indicating that funds were inclined to secondary bond funds with a higher risk - return ratio [43][44]. 3.4 From the Perspective of Convertible Bonds: Stable Investment Atmosphere with Balanced Increases and Decreases - In Q1 2025 compared with Q4 2024, the convertible bond positions of funds showed structural adjustments. The top ten increased convertible bonds were mainly in the financial and high - growth sectors, such as Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds (+13.18 billion yuan) and Shanghai United Bank Convertible Bonds (+13.17 billion yuan). The top ten reduced convertible bonds were concentrated in delisted targets, traditional infrastructure, and some financial varieties, such as Bank of Hangzhou Convertible Bonds (-13.82 billion yuan) [46][47]. - Overall, the increase focused on the stability of finance and the elasticity of emerging industries, while the reduction focused on risk clearance and relevant industry changes. The position adjustment reflected that institutions balanced returns and risk exposures through the dual - line strategy of "stable finance + betting on growth" under the expectation of loose liquidity [48].