华福固收：怎么看一揽子货币政策及对债市的影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating for this specific topic is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 7, 2025, the central bank introduced a package of 10 policies covering quantitative, price - based, and structural aspects, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [2][6] - Since the Trump tariff policy shock in April 2025, China's financial market has remained stable, and the package of monetary policies, though largely within market expectations, is more forceful than expected [2][11] - For the bond market, the current situation shows pressure on banks' liability - side and a flattened yield curve. The current policy is expected to ease banks' medium - and long - term liquidity pressure, lower the funds rate to make the yield curve steeper, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield may fall to the 1.5% - 1.6% range [2][12][13] - Future attention should be paid to the impact of bond supply and changes in the economic fundamentals and policies, especially the Sino - US trade negotiations from May 9 - 12 [2][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 One - Package Monetary Policy Details Quantitative Policies - Lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market - Temporarily reduce the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% [6] Price - Based Policies - Cut the policy rate by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, and the LPR expected to decline by about 0.1 percentage points accordingly - Lower the structural monetary policy tool rate by 0.25 percentage points (PSL from 2.25% to 2%, others from 1.75% to 1.5%) - Reduce the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points [6] Structural Policies - Increase the re - loan quota for technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan, from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan - Establish a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care - Add 300 billion yuan to the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses - Optimize two monetary policy tools for the capital market, combining the 50 - billion - yuan swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies and the 30 - billion - yuan re - loan for stock repurchase and increase, with a total quota of 80 billion yuan - Create a risk - sharing tool for technological innovation bonds [7] 3.2 Comparison with the 2024 Policy - Similarity: Both times the central bank announced reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, responding to the call for a moderately loose monetary policy - Differences: In 2025, the policy rate cut was 10BP with the same LPR cut, and the structural monetary policy tool rate was cut by 25BP. The incremental scale of structural monetary policy tools was 1.1 trillion yuan, larger than the 800 billion yuan in 2024 [2][8][12] 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market - Current Situation: After the central bank loosened its focus on funds prices, the funds rate has been approaching the policy rate but not yet stabilizing at 1.6%. The bank's net lending scale has been fluctuating around 3 trillion yuan, and the first - level issuance rate of certificates of deposit has faced a downward bottleneck. The yield curve has flattened further, with the 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond spread narrowing from 23BP at the beginning of April to 17BP at the end of April [2][12] - Policy Impact: The reserve requirement ratio cut can relieve banks' medium - and long - term liquidity pressure. A significant decline in the funds rate will steepen the yield curve, and the short - end rate has greater certainty. The long - end rate may break through the 1.6% level and fall to the 1.5% - 1.6% range [2][13] 3.4 Future Focus - Bond Supply: Pay attention to the impact of the accelerated issuance of Treasury bonds and the large supply of ultra - long - term bonds - Economic Fundamentals and Policies: The PMI in April decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49, and the impact of trade frictions on exports is expected to be more obvious in May. Focus on the Sino - US trade negotiations from May 9 - 12 [2][13]