Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Energy Chemical Options Daily Report dated May 7, 2025, providing early morning strategies for energy chemical options [2] Group 2: Industry Classification and Option Types - Energy chemical options are mainly divided into 5 categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefin chemicals, and other chemicals [3] Group 3: Basic Chemicals Sector Methanol Options - The afternoon methanol prices in Shandong on May 6 were 2400 yuan/ton in central Shandong, 2370 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, etc. [3] - Methanol has shown a weak and bearish trend with resistance above. The implied volatility is above the historical average [3] - A bearish combination strategy of call + put options is recommended to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_MA2506P2275, etc. [3] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Options - The mainstream prices of high - cis butadiene rubber in different regions decreased. For example, in Shandong, it was 11700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - Rubber has shown a weak consolidation and slight rebound under bearish pressure. The implied volatility of rubber options is at a historically high level [3] - A bearish volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain directional and time - value returns, such as S_RU2509P14250, etc. [3] Styrene Options - In April, the downstream demand of styrene decreased due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the inventory of finished products was high. In May, the terminal household appliance production plan decreased marginally [4] - Styrene has shown a weak and volatile trend with resistance above. The implied volatility has remained at a historically high level [4] - A volatility - selling option combination strategy is recommended to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_EB2506P6900, etc. [4] Group 4: Oil and Gas Sector Crude Oil Options - OPEC + members agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in June, but exports did not increase significantly. The US maintained production cuts [4] - Crude oil has shown a large - fluctuation trend under bearish pressure. The implied volatility has remained at a relatively high level [4] - A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_SC2506P455 and S_SC2506C475 [4] Liquefied Gas Options - The benchmark price of liquefied gas on the business community was 4980.00 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the beginning of last month [4] - Liquefied gas has shown a short - term weak rebound with resistance above. The implied volatility has remained above the historical average [4] - A strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination is recommended. Adjust the position delta dynamically and close the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PG2506P4350, etc. [4] Group 5: Polyester Chemicals Sector PX and PTA Options - At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.7%, down 2.2% month - on - month. The overall inventory decreased year - on - year [5] - PTA has shown a mild bullish trend under bearish pressure. The implied volatility has remained at a relatively high level [5] - A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_TA2506P4450 and S_TA2506C4600 [5] Ethylene Glycol Options - As of April 28, the port inventory was 800,000 tons, up 15,000 tons year - on - year. The downstream inventory days increased [5] - Ethylene glycol has shown a short - term weak and bearish large - fluctuation trend with resistance above. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to a historically high level [5] - A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_EG2506P4100 and S_EG2506C4250 [5] Short - Fiber Options - At the end of the month, the polyester load was 93.4%, up 0.5% year - on - year. The short - fiber load was 91.3%, down 0.6% [5] - Short - fiber has shown a bearish rebound after over - decline. The implied volatility has remained at a relatively high level [5] - A strategy of selling a call + put option combination to sell volatility is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_PF2506P6000, etc. [5] Group 6: Polyolefin Chemicals Sector Polypropylene Options - The PP production enterprise inventory decreased by 5.81% this month but increased by 8.18% year - on - year. The trade and port inventories had different changes [6] - Polypropylene has shown a weak and large - fluctuation trend with resistance above. The implied volatility is at a historically high level [6] - A strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination is recommended. Adjust the position delta dynamically and close the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PP2506P7100, etc. [6] Polyethylene Options - The PE production enterprise inventory increased by 18.16% this month and 7.71% year - on - year. The trade inventory had different changes [6] - Polyethylene has shown a weak consolidation trend with resistance above. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high level [6] - A bearish directional strategy is recommended to obtain directional returns, such as B_L2506P7200 and S_L2506C7300 [6] PVC Options - At the end of April, the factory inventory, social inventory, and overall inventory decreased year - on - year. The warrants increased after centralized cancellation [6] - PVC has shown a wide - range weak consolidation and then a weak downward trend, followed by a rebound with resistance above. The implied volatility has remained at a low level [6] - A bearish directional strategy is recommended to obtain directional returns, such as B_V2506P4900, etc. [6] Group 7: Option Data Summary Option Underlying Market Data - Data such as the closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest of various option underlyings are provided, such as methanol with a closing price of 2289 yuan for the 2506 contract, up 8 yuan, etc. [8] Option Volume, Open Interest, and Amount Data - Data on the volume, open interest, and amount of various options, including their changes, are presented, such as the volume of methanol options (MA506) being 16.33 million, up 2.41 million [9] Option Volume, Open Interest, and Amount PCR Data - PCR data for volume, open interest, and amount of various options, including their changes, are given, such as the volume - PCR of methanol options (MA506) being 1.31, down 0.17 [10] Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices - The strike prices with the maximum open interest for calls and puts, as well as pressure and support points, are provided for each option underlying, such as the pressure point of methanol (MA506) being 2350 yuan [11] Option Implied Volatility Data - Implied volatility data, including changes, annual averages, call and put implied volatilities, etc., are presented for each option underlying, such as the implied volatility of methanol (MA506) being 24.78, down 8.08 [13]
能源化工期权策略早报-20250507
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-07 08:56