瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On May 7, V2509 rose and then fell, closing at 4,876 yuan/ton. Last week, affected by the increased load of some devices like Bohua, PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 0.70% to 79.33%. The PVC social inventory before the festival decreased by 5.15% to 687,700 tons, maintaining a destocking trend with little inventory pressure. In May, the PVC maintenance loss will decrease marginally, and Wanhua's 500,000 - ton device may be put into production, so the supply pressure is expected to rise. The downstream product start - up is generally dragged down by the real estate market. The Indian market is disturbed by the uncertainty of BIS certification and anti - dumping duties, and the India - Pakistan conflict may affect India's infrastructure construction and weaken PVC demand. Vietnam's PVC floor exports are restricted by US tariffs, which may affect China's PVC raw material exports. The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is at a relatively low level. It is expected that V2509 will fluctuate at a low level, with support around 4,820 and resistance around 4,980 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,876 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 22 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 849,771 lots, with a daily increase of 307,264 lots; the open interest is 982,127 lots, with a daily increase of 12,927 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 727,115 lots, with a daily increase of 1,681 lots; the sell order volume is 826,515 lots, with a daily increase of 12,987 lots; the net buy order volume is - 99,400 lots, with a daily decrease of 11,306 lots [3] 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,739.23 yuan/ton, down 42.31 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,781.25 yuan/ton, down 67.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 176 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2,823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2,618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 534 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia is 551 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 196 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia is 181 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.33%, up 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79%, up 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 80.19%, up 1.58 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 403,600 tons, down 17,000 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 361,800 tons, down 19,400 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 41,800 tons, up 2,400 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, an increase of 63.8246 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.1370544 billion square meters, an increase of 7.73344 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, an increase of 48.9131 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 16.75%, up 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.71%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.34%, up 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.35%, up 0.18 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - On May 7, the central bank announced ten measures in three categories including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and reduction of individual housing provident fund loan interest rates. Pakistan and India have started exchanges of fire on the Line of Control in Pakistan - administered Kashmir, and Pakistan has launched ground and air operations. According to Longzhong Information, on May 7, the cash - spot price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable compared with the previous day, at 4,630 - 4,780 yuan/ton [3]