Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-07 09:34Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, L2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 6970 and resistance around 7160. The inventory pressure is not significant. There is a possibility of two sets of devices in Shandong New Era going into production in May. Industry - wide maintenance will start from the middle and late of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to be high in the early stage and low in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of tariff negotiations between China and the US. The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a strong rebound in international oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7046 yuan/ton, with a change of 59. The 1 - month contract closes at 6979 yuan/ton (up 58), the 5 - month contract at 7263 yuan/ton (up 33), and the 9 - month contract at 7046 yuan/ton (up 59). The trading volume is 348,273 lots (up 51,423), and the open interest is 520,492 lots (down 12,547). The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is - 284 (up 25). The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 358,474 lots (down 4,789), the short positions are 438,448 lots (down 7,249), and the net long positions are - 79,974 lots (up 2,460) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7389.55 yuan/ton (down 31.36), and in East China is 7370.49 yuan/ton (down 42.44). The basis is 402.55 (up 64.64) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 60.22 US dollars/barrel (up 0.8), the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 554.75 US dollars/ton (up 8.5). The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 871 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Northeast Asia is 791 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 84.39% (up 0.64) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film is 47.85% (down 0.96), the operating rate of polyethylene pipes is 31.83% (unchanged), and the operating rate of polyethylene agricultural film is 23.39% (down 2.7) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 22.44% (up 0.46), the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.7% (up 0.19). The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.57% (up 0.2), and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.57% (up 0.24) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On May 7, the central bank announced ten measures in three categories, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and reduction of individual housing provident fund loan interest rates. From April 25 to May 1, China's polyethylene production totaled 651,100 tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous week. From April 18 to 24, China's polyethylene capacity utilization rate was 83.75%, a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. From April 25 to 30, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.32% from the previous period. As of April 29, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 414,000 tons, a 21.31% decrease from the previous period. As of May 2, the social inventory of polyethylene was 611,700 tons, a 1.98% increase from the previous period [2].