瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 ended the session in a moderately strong position at 2,513 yuan per ton. The average caustic soda capacity utilization rate before the holiday increased by 1.8% to 83.9%. The domestic alumina operating rate continued to decline; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.54% to 79.71%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 1.79% to 415,800 tons. In May, the chlor - alkali industry had concentrated maintenance, and the shutdown capacity increased, partially alleviating the industry's supply pressure. The high - cost alumina production facilities in the downstream had both production cuts and new capacity launches, but the profit repair was limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand was difficult to increase. During the National Day, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, and the liquid caustic soda inventory faced the pressure of accumulation. There was still support from overseas markets such as Indonesia. For SH2509, pay attention to the support around 2,470 below and the pressure around 2,550 above [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,513 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15; the futures trading volume was 492,543 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 138,843; the futures open interest was 202,503 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 26,287; the net position of the top 20 futures was 115 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 44. The closing price of the January contract was 2,470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 11; the closing price of the May contract was 2,400 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,500 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis of caustic soda was - 13 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 225 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal was 679 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 100 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200.5; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,480 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change; the spot price of alumina was 2,850 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.6 Industry News - On May 7, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, the central bank announced ten measures in three categories, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and cuts in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate. From April 25th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. As of April 30th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 415,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.79% [3]